5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 7/17/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Adam Eaton, OF, Washington Nationals ($2,900)
The Nats' offense draws a matchup with the Baltimore Orioles, and picking on their bullpen is nothing new at this point in the season. Tonight's starter, Aaron Brooks, has only managed a 4.50 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) on the year, which is right in line with his career average of 4.54. He's getting cracked for a 37.7% hard-hit rate and 40.5% fly-ball rate, which is always a good sign for opposing fantasy bats, too.
Adam Eaton has turned in a middling 2019 campaign from the dish so far, with only a .329 wOBA, but his fantasy value gets a nice boost from being in such a productive offense. Batting high in the order and doing a solid job getting on base (10.7% walk rate to go with that not-terrible wOBA) has let him score 53 runs, and scoring should not be hard to come by in tonight's matchup.
His production also sees a bit of a bump against right-handed pitching, with his wOBA climbing to .330 in the split this year, bringing his career average to .349.
Matt Adams, 1B, Washington Nationals ($2,700)
Getting right back to that same matchup, Aaron Brooks is allowing a particularly rough 40.7% hard-hit rate and .344 wOBA to left-handed bats this season.
Matt Adams is a lefty who can absolutely rake with the platoon advantage, making Brooks' struggles in the split especially concerning.
Adams has mashed righties for an ISO of at least .219 every year since 2016, with an average of .248 along with a .343 wOBA in that time.
His wOBA in the split is down to only .317 this year, but that's not something to be concerned about, since his 44.6% hard-hit rate is his highest in those four years, while his 48.4% fly-ball rate is his highest since 2016. He can be a boom-or-bust fantasy producer, but the "boom" potential against Brooks is huge.
Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Boston Red Sox ($2,700)
Sanchez got a pass for his struggles in 2017 when he was dealing with blister issues, but that doesn't excuse what we've seen since. He returned with a 5.10 SIERA in 2018, and this year he's matching the awful 5.62 mark he posted back in 2017. His strikeout rate is down to 17.3%, while his walk rate is up to a career-worst 12.7%.
Jackie Bradley, as is often the case, makes for the most exciting way to get cheap exposure to the Boston offense. His 26.0% strikeout rate and .310 wOBA are always going to leave him offering a low floor, but his upside is still terrific. Over the last five years, he's hit right-handed pitching for a .336 wOBA and .207 ISO on 37.5% hard hits and 37.4% fly balls. His contact and production are down some in 2019, but tonight's great matchup goes a long way to erase those concerns.
Jarrod Dyson, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks ($2,700)
Jarrod Dyson's 21 stolen bases in 2019 are tied for the fourth-most in the majors, and his 271 plate appearances are 66 fewer than anyone in the top-five.
He's not a dangerous hitter, with only a .302 wOBA and .109 ISO on the year, but his 11.1% walk rate gets him in plenty of opportunities to show off his baserunning abilities and generate big fantasy upside.
He also fares better at getting on base against right-handed pitching, with his wOBA and walk rate both climbing slightly in that split, while his strikeout rate drops to 18.7%. That positions him well tonight against Texas Rangers righty Jesse Chavez, who has a middling 4.24 SIERA on the season, allowing a 41.0% hard-hit rate with a 4.23 xFIP against left-handed hitters.
Joc Pederson, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers ($2,800)
Joc Pederson remains far too cheap. This is three slates in a row that he's been bizarrely cheap, and despite recording 1 double, 1 home run, 1 stolen base, 2 runs and 3 RBI in his last two games, FanDuel hasn't moved his price back to the mid-$3,000 range where it sat before taking an unexpected drop after the All-Star break.
It's not just two games of production that makes this salary a head-scratcher, either. On the year, Joc is sporting a .357 wOBA and .285 ISO, which comes after he notched a .354 wOBA and .273 ISO in 2018. He's especially good with the platoon advantage, turning a 44.5% hard-hit and 43.2% fly-ball rate into a .375 wOBA and huge .304 ISO since 2018. Those aren't exactly value play type numbers.
He also gets a plus matchup today, as Philadelphia Phillies righty Nick Pivetta has only managed a 4.90 SIERA in 2019, getting blasted for a 43.7% hard-hit rate and 35.3% fly-ball rate by left-handed sticks.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.