4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/15/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Blake Snell UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)
Blake Snell has a modest strikeout prop tonight but faces a tough opponent. Does that mean we need to fade his strikeout prop?
The 2018 Cy Young winner is boasting a 32.8% strikeout rate this season, which is the highest on the slate among qualified pitchers, but his strikeout prop tonight could be a trap. It might seem obvious to take the OVER when Snell comes in with 17 strikeouts in his last 11 innings and has posted nine or more strikeouts seven different times this season. But the OVER doesn't look good, per our projections, as we have Snell going for 6.28 strikeouts.
Matchup-wise, this isn't ideal for Snell, since he is up against the New York Yankees, a team he has struggled against this season. Snell has three starts against the Yankees this year for a total of 11.1 innings pitched, 14 strikeouts, and nine earned runs. Just over one strikeout per inning can be concerning when we have Snell projected for only 5.05 innings pitched tonight. For as good as Snell is with his 32.8% strikeout rate, the UNDER on this prop looks likely with very little juice.
Lucas Giolito OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Despite cooling off in recent starts, Lucas Giolito is in a spot to hit the OVER on his strikeout prop tonight.
He is facing off against the Kansas City Royals, who have a 22.8% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers, which is right at league average. They aren't horrible, and they aren't amazing, but Giolito has absolutely dominated them this season, posting eight or more strikeouts against them in three of four starts. That gives him 34 strikeouts in 25 innings pitched versus KC, which is good for 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Giolito simply has the Royals' number this campaign, and the 6.5 line tonight seems to be far too low.
We have positive odds for the OVER right now, and given Giolito's 30.1% strikeout rate on the season, consider his recent struggles -- which came against top-shelf competition -- a mere bump in the road.
Joc Pederson To Hit a Home Run (+160)
The Los Angeles Dodgers' offense is rolling to start the second half of the season, and they are expected to continue doing just that tonight as they visit the City of Brotherly Love.
A 5.28 implied run total for the Dodgers is the fourth-highest on the slate, but will they be hitting home runs tonight? Specifically, will Joc Pederson hit a home run today? The odds suggest he has a good shot, as he comes in at +160 to go deep, which is even better than the odds of his teammate, Cody Bellinger.
Pederson comes in with a very healthy .310 ISO, 45.1% hard-hit rate, and 25.3% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this season versus right-handed pitchers. If he gets the ball up in the air against righties, there is a good chance it's going over the fence, something that looks very likely tonight. Our projections have Pederson as the number-one hitter to jack a home run tonight, even ahead of the guys at Coors Field.
Pederson is up against Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zach Eflin, who comes in allowing a 45.6% hard-hit rate and 43.6% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters this season. This is a solid park factor bump for the Dodgers' offense tonight, and with the first pitch temperature set to be at 86 degrees, we have a great hitting environment.
Carlos Santana To Hit a Home Run (+310)
Carlos Santana comes into this game with home runs in two of his last three games, but will that hot streak continue tonight?
I've said this before, and it should hold true tonight -- when things line up, I go with them. That is the case tonight with Santana against Daniel Norris, who comes in allowing 1.33 homers per nine innings, a 40.2% hard-hit rate, and 33.3% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters this season. Those are numbers you want to attack, and they line up for Santana, who has a .396 wOBA, 51.2% hard-hit rate, and a 23.5% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio versus lefty pitchers.
We have Santana projected as the fifth-most likely hitter to go deep tonight, and it looks to be a classic 'don't overthink it" situation, so roll with the power hitter in a great spot.