3 Under-the-Radar MLB FanDuel Plays for 7/15/19
When being contrarian in daily fantasy sports, there's a fine line between taking a calculated risk and being reckless. But differentiating your lineups from everyone else is the name of the game if you plan on taking down one of those highly lucrative DFS tournaments. Whether it's because of Vegas totals, other options at a given position, or some gem you've found that everyone is overlooking, we can always find potential under-owned plays if we look hard enough.
Here are three such players to consider branching out for on FanDuel's main slate.
Joe Musgrove, P, Pittsburgh Pirates
FanDuel Price: $8,300
We have 10 games on the slate (including one in Coors Field) to kick off our MLB week, so there are plenty of opportunities for lower ownership tonight.
There are at least five legitimate aces on the mound tonight and four of them come in with strikeouts rates sitting at 28.0% or higher. Joe Musgrove isn't one of those pitchers, but he makes an interesting tournament option tonight. Over his last four starts, Musgrove has allowed a total of four earned runs while piling up 22 strikeouts in 22 innings pitched. This might be the best stretch of the season for Musgrove and it's set to continue tonight given how favorable his matchup is against the St. Louis Cardinals.
St. Louis comes into this game as one of the worst teams in the league since June 1st. The Cardinals have 76 wRC+ (30th in the league), .146 ISO (28th in the league), and a 23.7% strikeout rate (12th worst in the league) versus right-handed pitchers. With the way they're playing right now you should be willing to attack them at every opportunity. Yes, Musgrove is only carrying a 19.9% strikeout rate, which is considerably lower compared to some of the other pitchers on this slate, but he over $1,000 cheaper than some of the other options, and those savings can be used to upgrade some hitters or get exposure to Coors Field tonight.
Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers
FanDuel Price: $3,000
The Detroit Tigers aren't one of the best teams in the league, but their matchup tonight could make them viable in tournaments.
They are facing off against Cleveland Indians pitcher Adam Plutko, who is one of the worst pitchers on the slate. You should be looking to stack against him whenever he is pitching. Plutko is carrying a 4.52 xFIP, 40.7% hard-hit rate, and a whopping 46.3% fly-ball rate. Guess what? Giving up hard hits and fly balls is not a combination for success in today's MLB and when you see that, your eyes should light up.
The Tigers have a 4.30 implied run total tonight and some of those runs could easily come via the long ball. Specifically, Nick Castellanos comes in with a modest 38.5% hard-hit rate against righty pitchers, but more importantly a 40.4% fly-ball rate. We have a hitter with a high fly-ball rate going directly against a pitcher who gives up a ton of fly balls to right-handed hitters.
Eric Sogard, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
FanDuel Price: $3,700
Toronto comes in with a 4.50 implied run total tonight, which is the seventh-highest on the slate and they are up against Rick Porcello, who struggles versus lefty hitters. This season, Porcello has an atrocious 6.07 xFIP, allowing 1.36 homers per nine innings, and a 44.5% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters this season. The former Cy Young winner is struggling this season and despite the fact that the Blue Jays are not a great team, they have plenty of viable DFS options to look at.
One player who fits the bill is Eric Sogard, who is having one of his best seasons in the majors. You should be looking to keep it rolling with him.
Sogard is carrying a .354 wOBA, super low 11.1% strikeout rate, and a 41.7% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. The Blue Jays have a great matchup to attack tonight and can help you avoid some of the ownership at Coors Field.