4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/12/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Caleb Smith OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-104)
Caleb Smith is back from his injury and looking strong, but does that mean we want to attack his strikeout prop tonight?
This season, Smith is posting a 31.1% strikeout rate, which is the third-highest on the slate if you include Mike Clevinger and his smaller sample size. Smith is quickly becoming a legitimate ace for the Miami Marlins and he has a chance to show that again tonight against a weak New York Mets lineup. The Mets come in with a 23.7% strikeout rate this season versus left-handed pitchers, which is right at league average, but Smith should be able to handle them easily. Our projections have Smith going for 6.72 strikeouts tonight, which has him hitting the over.
Over the course of his young career, Smith has 16.2 innings pitched against the Mets and has piled up 23 strikeouts, which is good for 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings, according to Baseball Reference. There is next to no juice on this prop and Smith has the ability to get it done easily tonight.
Domingo German OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Domingo German is another pitcher coming back from an injury, but that shouldn't stop us from looking at his strikeout prop tonight, which has amazing odds.
A prop at +120 doesn't come around that often, especially considering it looks likely to happen tonight, as he is up against the Toronto Blue Jays, who have a 24.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers which is eighth-worst in the league. Striking hitters out isn't anything new for German, who has a 26.4% strikeout rate this season along with a 14.1% swinging-strike rate.
Our projections have German going for 6.55 strikeouts tonight, which is just over his 6.5 prop thus, cashing the over. It's a tight projection, there is no doubt about it, but the odds are very favorable and the matchup suggests he should be able to hit this mark.
Gary Sanchez To Hit a Home Run (+145)
It's clear that the odds (+145) on this prop aren't amazing for Sanchez since they are looking very likely to happen. That is a good thing if you are looking for one of the 'safer' home run props tonight, compared to taking a long shot on someone who is +500. Let's take a look at why the odds are much lower for Sanchez tonight.
Sanchez comes in with a silly high 26.9% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this season versus right-handed pitchers, which comes from his .315 ISO, 46.2% hard-hit rate, and his 49.0% fly-ball rate. Power, on top of hard contact, on top of elevating the ball all leads top plenty of home runs. His matchup against Aaron Sanchez is solid tonight since he is allowing 1.29 homers per nine innings to righty hitters, along with a 40.3% hard-hit rate to righties when pitching away from home this season.
Our projections have Gary Sanchez as the second most likely to hit one over the fence tonight, so it looks like we will be releasing the Kraken tonight.
Trevor Story To Hit a Home Run (+190)
It's Coors Field, the best hitter's park in the league, but who will be hitting a home run tonight?
Despite Sonny Gray having a very solid season for the Cincinnati Reds, the Colorado Rockies come into this game with an implied team total set at 6.36, which is the second-highest on the slate. What do you expect? This game is at Coors Field and no matter how good a pitcher is, there will be high implied run totals.
Story is one of the elite hitters in the league and while his numbers might be inflated a bit with him playing half of his games in Colorado, there is no reason to shy away from him. Story has hit nine of his 19 home runs while at home versus right-handed pitchers, so clearly, this is a spot he is comfortable with.
He comes in boasting a .292 ISO and a 23.2% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this season versus righty pitchers. We see both of those numbers jump up a decent amount while at home in this split, so load up his home run prop and don't look back.