DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 7/12/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
Gerrit Cole ($11,500 on DraftKings): He's the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but also probably the only high-priced pitcher I have interest in this evening. He doesn't have an easy matchup against a lefty-heavy Texas Rangers lineup with the game being played in Texas, but the strikeout upside is too high to ignore and what gives him the highest upside on the slate. He has a 36.7 percent strikeout rate this season and the Rangers have a 24.8 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers which is the seventh-most in the Majors.
Robbie Ray ($7,900): Every time Robbie Ray is on the slate you essentially want to decide if you're going to use him or stack against him. He is such a boom or bust play with elite upside and a low downside with some of the control issues he has. His 12.1 percent walk-rate is bottom-three on the slate whereas his 30.6 percent strikeout rate is among the top five which is where we get the upside. He'll face a St. Louis Cardinals team that has just a 20.4 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers, but their .322 wOBA sits just middle-of-the-pack. You rarely will see a pitcher with Ray's upside down below $8,000.
Danny Duffy ($6,800): Danny Duffy presents another very nice bargain price although his upside isn't near as high as Ray's. This is primarily a price and matchup play here as the sub-$7k price tag in a matchup against the Detroit Tigers is intriguing. While Duffy's strikeout rate is very low at 18.9 percent this season, the Tigers are striking out at a 25.9 percent clip against left-handed pitching which is the fourth-most in the Majors. In addition, they have a .294 wOBA which ranks way down at 26th overall.
Hitters to Target
Charlie Blackmon ($5,400): Nothing like coming back from the All-Star break with a 13-game Coors slate. But, here we are and we cannot ignore it. Sonny Gray has actually been pretty good this season with a 27.8 percent strikeout rate and limited batters to just a 16.0 percent line-drive rate. However, his 38.9 percent hard-hit rate could get him into trouble and while his 28.1 percent fly-ball rate is fine, his 13.8 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate could be an issue in this ballpark. Charlie Blackmon has smashed right-handed pitchers this season with a .446 wOBA and a .335 ISO.
Christian Yelich ($5,200): Speaking of left-handed hitters that smash right-handed pitchers, Christian Yelich is among the best hitters in baseball this season and has done most of his damage against righties. His .484 wOBA and .402 ISO is matched by few and with a matchup against San Francisco Giants' Shaun Anderson, those numbers should be on full display tonight. Anderson has a 39.8 percent hard-hit rate and a slate-worst 29.7 percent line-drive rate. The 55.1 innings pitched by Anderson isn't a large sample size, but Yelich's numbers are elite enough that what Anderson has done doesn't even make a difference.
Gleyber Torres ($4.800): Gleyber Torres has a fantastic matchup this evening against Toronto Blue Jays struggling right-hander Aaron Sanchez. Sanchez has easily the worst SIERA on the slate with a 5.57 mark and that is only a slight improvement on his abysmal 6.16 ERA. He is giving up a modest 37.6 percent hard-hit rate and his .329 BABIP would indicate he is probably getting a bit unlucky, but not unlucky enough to make up for much. Torres has smashed righties this season with a .378 wOBA and a .251 ISO and tonight is an elite matchup for him.
Jesse Winker ($4,000): There are a few cheaper bats in Coors Field tonight and Jesse Winker certainly falls on the cheaper side of things. The Colorado Rockies will be rolling with Jon Gray on the mound tonight and he has been solid. His 9.2 percent walk-rate is pretty bad, but his 36.8 percent hard-hit rate and 23.5 percent line-drive rate is what I'm targeting here. Jesse Winker has an elite .352 wOBA and .244 ISO which are great numbers coming into the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the Majors.
Justin Upton ($3,800): After missing a huge chunk of the season, Justin Upton has come back and hitting great. In limited plate appearances in 2019, he has smashed righties with a .458 wOBA and a solid .270 ISO. In 2018, he had great numbers against righties too, with a .373 wOBA and .232 ISO, so there is little concern that his great 2019 numbers are a mirage. He has a great matchup against the Seattle Mariners' Mike Leake as he has struggled mightily. Leake has given up a horrific 40.6 percent hard-hit rate and 35.5 percent fly-ball rate which has led to a 17.3 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate.
Jose Martinez ($3,500): While we talked about the positives about Robbie Ray above, there are still some warts in his game worth targeting with hitters. His 12.1 walk-rate stinks and he has given up a 40.2 percent hard-hit rate and a 38.4 percent fly-ball rate which has resulted in a 16.0 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. Jose Martinez has absolutely crushed left-handed pitching this season and the power has been evident. He has put up a ridiculous .469 wOBA and .358 ISO against southpaws and has an elite matchup tonight.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.