FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 7/14/19
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy-looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. We'll be focusing exclusively on the main slate.
Pitchers to Target
Jacob deGrom ($10,800 on FanDuel): DeGrom is the clear top play in cash games as he's a -220 moneyline favorite in a clash with the Miami Marlins, who have been given a slate-low 2.91 implied total. DeGrom has pitched to a 3.37 SIERA, 30.7% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 14.8% swinging-strike rate this year. Miami, you may have heard, is bad. The Marlins are tied for last in wOBA against righties (.284) while holding the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the split (25.1%). Our projections have deGrom as the slate's top pitcher.
Masahiro Tanaka ($8,100): While you can also look at Shane Bieber ($10,600) and José Berríos ($10,000), let's peep the much cheaper Tanaka, who has a great home matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays have the eighth-worst strikeout rate against righties (24.7%) with the fifth-lowest wOBA in the split (.297). The New York Yankees are -230 favorites, tops on the slate, giving Tanaka a great chance at a win. The Yankees' right-hander has seen a lot of his numbers take a hit in 2019, but he's been really good at home, posting a 3.54 xFIP at Yankee Stadium while holding hitters to a .281 wOBA with a 23.4% strikeout rate and 4.7% walk rate in the Bronx.
Homer Bailey ($7,100): In GPPs, Bailey isn't a bad dart throw as he's at home against the Detroit Tigers, the team tied with the Marlins for the worst wOBA against righties. The Tigers also have the second-highest strikeout rate in the split (26.0%). Bailey has a 10.8% swinging-strike rate this season, his best clip since 2014. He's shown the ability to take advantage of quality matchups, including a dominant 51.1-FanDuel-point outing versus these Tigers back on June 13. Most people who pass on the top-priced options at pitcher will likely use Tanaka or Jose Quintana ($8,000), so Bailey makes some sense in tournaments.
Hitters to Target
Christian Yelich ($4,800) and Mike Moustakas ($3,700): The Milwaukee Brewers carry a 5.58 implied total into their home date with Tyler Beede. Beede owns a 5.44 SIERA over 52 1/3 career MLB frames, giving up a .372 wOBA and 43.1% hard-hit rate to lefties. Yelich and Moustakas are top-five bats on this slate, per our models, with Yelich at the top of the heap. At home versus righties in 2019, Moustakas has put up a .390 wOBA, 55.0% hard-hit rate and 45.6% fly-ball rate. In the same split, Yelich has a .527 wOBA with an eye-popping 61.8% hard-hit rate. You can also check out the modestly priced Yasmani Grandal ($3,200), who will hit from the left side against Beede.
Kris Bryant ($4,200) and Javier Báez ($4,100): Báez and Bryant are top-three sticks, according to our projections, as the Chicago Cubs face off with Trevor Williams. Williams has just an 18.8% strikeout rate this year, and he's pitched to a 4.64 SIERA over 405 career innings. Báez has the slate's best odds of going deep, per our models, and he's posted a .391 wOBA this season at home versus righties. Bryant has a .397 wOBA in that same split.
Eric Thames ($2,800): Per usual, Thames is in play as a value bat when Milwaukee is seeing a righty. Our models have him as the slate's fifth-best point-per-dollar hitter, and he's got a .376 wOBA, 47.0% hard-hit rate and 43.5% fly-ball rate this year versus righties.
Nate Lowe ($2,900): As of early Sunday morning, the Baltimore Orioles haven't yet announced a starter for today. It was supposed to be Andrew Cashner, but he's been dealt to the Boston Red Sox. Last night, beat writers suggested Tom Eshelman could get the start. We'll have to see who the O's go with, but if they start a righty, Lowe is a stellar value play. The rookie has mashed his way to a .379 wOBA and 45.7% hard-hit rate in a small sample of 71 MLB plate appearances. He jacked 12 homers and recorded a .406 wOBA in 296 Triple-A plate appearances this year. Oh, and he's on fire, hitting five bombs in his last six games.
Nicky Lopez ($2,100): Lopez is a cheap way to get exposure to the Kansas City Royals, one of the slate's better stacking options. KC has been handed a gaudy 5.44 implied total for their matchup with Jordan Zimmermann, the owner of a 5.34 SIERA and 15.1% strikeout rate in 2019. Lopez has shown very little pop in his 210 MLB plate appearances this year, struggling to a .262 wOBA. But he opened the year with a hard-to-believe 3.6% strikeout rate, 14.5% walk rate and .420 wOBA in Triple-A. He also has some running ability, logging nine steals in his early-year stint in Triple-A, though he's attempted just two steals in the bigs.
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