4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/5/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jacob deGrom OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (-104)
Jacob deGrom is one of three elite pitchers on the mound tonight, but should we be looking at his strikeout prop tonight?
deGrom comes in with a 30.3% strikeout rate this season, which is the second highest on the slate and a prop sitting at 8.5, which is normal for him, but the over is what we want to attack tonight. There is very little juice on the over and with deGrom being up against the Philadelphia Phillies, he should be in a spot to cash that.
The Phillies come in with a 22.9% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers, which is right around league average, but deGrom has been able to handle them easily over the course of his career. He has 91 strikeouts in 86 innings pitched, which is good for 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings, according to Baseball Reference. He comes in with eight or more strikeouts in four of his last five starts and will continue rolling that performance right into this game and hit the over on his strikeout prop.
Justin Verlander UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Justin Verlander and strikeouts go hand in hand but tonight could things be different?
Right now, we have Verlander projected for 7.63 strikeouts and his prop is sitting at 7.5, that would imply to take the over, but that is not the case tonight. While he is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league, the matchup tonight versus the Los Angeles Angels doesn't present to be an easy one, since they come in with a 17.7 strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the lowest in the league.
The Angels simply don't give up free outs at the plate and are extremely patient. It's tough to bet against a pitcher doing what he does best, but the matchup tonight isn't conducive for Verlander to get opposing hitters to swing and miss. The under on his strikeout prop has positive odds and is a bet worth considering.
Clayton Kershaw OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-104)
Another ace pitcher, another strikeout prop to look at tonight, but what does the future hold for Clayton Kershaw?
Kershaw has a prop sitting at 6.5 tonight, which for his historic success, seems a bit too low. Yes, he has taken a slight step back with his strikeout rate from a few years ago, but he should be able to handle this San Diego Padres lineup, who struggle versus lefty pitchers. San Diego comes in with a 25.8% strikeout rate this season, which is the fifth worst in the league, and Kershaw should be able to jump all over that.
This won't be anything new for him since he has 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings versus the Padres over the course of his career, according to Baseball Reference, so the over 6.5 if firmly within reach tonight. We have Kershaw going for 6.46 strikeouts tonight, just below the prop line, but with almost no juice on the over tonight, this prop is one worth attacking.
Nelson Cruz To Hit a Home Run (+220)
We've gone over plenty of pitchers, time to show the hitter's some love with a home run prop tonight.
The Minnesota Twins are at home with a massive implied run total of 5.60 and you can bet some of those runs are going to come via the home run. No, literally, you can bet on a player hitting a home run, such as Nelson Cruz. He comes in with +220 odds and is second on our projection list for home runs tonight.
Cruz is carrying a .383 wOBA, .263 ISO, 50.9% hard-hit rate, and a 25.0% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this season versus righty pitchers. Those are All-Star level numbers and it helps that he has hit 11 of his 16 home runs against righty pitchers, so why not make it one more tonight?
His matchup tonight could be one of the very best on the slate since he is up against Adrian Sampson, who is allowing 2.05 homers per nine innings this season to righty hitters, which comes from a 47.2% hard-hit rate and a 40.9% fly-ball rate. Everything adds up for Cruz being in a great spot to go deep tonight and the odds on this prop are favorable.