5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 7/3/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Josh Donaldson, 3B, Atlanta Braves ($3,000)
Donaldson's clearly on the decline at this stage of his career, but that doesn't mean he hasn't still looked good from the dish. Last year, he fell to a .345 wOBA and .203 ISO over 219 plate appearances, and while those marks are already fine at $3,000, this season he's improved on those with a .355 wOBA and .223 ISO over 342 plate appearances.
Same-sided matchups haven't been too hard for him, either, with a .361 wOBA and .236 ISO across 267 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
He's not against an especially tough righty tonight, as Philadelphia's Nick Pivetta has struggled to the tune of a 4.77 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in 10 games in 2019, getting rocked for a 43.9% hard-hit rate.
Derek Dietrich, 2B, Cincinnati Reds ($2,800)
After a bizarrely strong start to the year, Dietrich's production fell way off in June, with only a .284 wOBA. That came with a .179 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), though, so while regression from his .491 wOBA in May was all but inevitable, he's probably also not as bad as we saw last month.
All things considered, his 223 plate appearances this season have come with a terrific .378 wOBA and .342 ISO on a 42.0% hard-hit rate and 48.2% fly-ball rate. He's got a history of beating up on right-handed pitching, too, as his last four seasons include years with a .368 wOBA and .370 wOBA in that split.
Chris Iannetta, C, Colorado Rockies ($2,900)
The Colorado Rockies are hosting the Houston Astros at Coors Field again tonight, and this game has a massive 14-run over/under. There's a good chance there won't be a single hitter in the Astros' lineup priced at $3,000 or below, but the Rockies give us a few value options.
You'll have to check the lineup because Tony Wolters does sometimes remain in the lineup against southpaws, but with lefty Wade Miley on the mound for Houston, Iannetta may get the nod with the platoon advantage.
The 36-year-old Iannetta is still showing plenty of pop against southpaws, and since rejoining the Rockies in 2018, he has a 41.8% hard-hit rate and 37.3% fly-ball rate in the split. Only 91 of those plate appearances have come at home, but he does show a strong .360 wOBA in that small sample.
As a cheap way to get exposure to a 6.70-run implied total, that's more than enough. Mark Reynolds ($2,600) is another guy who's not a regular, so check the official lineup when it drops, but he's turning in better than 40% on both hard-hit and fly-ball rates against southpaws this year, giving him big upside.
Garrett Hampson, SS, Colorado Rockies ($2,800)
More of a lock to be in the lineup, Hampson isn't as exciting as either Iannetta or Wolters, but if neither of them are in action, he's still a decent way to get cheap exposure to that massive implied total.
Wade Miley has allowed a 38.5% hard-hit rate and 33.8% fly-ball rate to right-handed bats in 2019, and his 4.52 SIERA suggests that he's pitching far worse than his 3.39 ERA might lead you to believe.
Hampson has been, plainly, bad from the dish in 2019. He has a paltry .227 wOBA over 134 plate appearances in the Majors, and he only notched a .314 wOBA in Triple-A. He does get the platoon advantage, though, and this is only the second game of 2019 with an over/under of at least 14 runs. If he does manage to get his bat going, the added potential for runs and RBI puts him in a nice spot if Iannetta and Reynolds are both out.
Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers ($2,900)
Mazara's 2019 season has been pretty much the same as what he's showed us over his whole major league career so far, with a .321 wOBA and .186 ISO that aren't far from his career averages of .320 and .170.
He's improved his contact numbers significantly, though, with career-bests in both hard-hit (47.6%) and soft-hit (17.5%) rates, so that increase in ISO does have a solid foundation to it. As usual, he's doing his best work against right-handed pitching, too, with a .344 wOBA and .194 ISO on a terrific 51.9% hard-hit rate in the split.
His matchup tonight isn't an overly soft one, as Los Angeles Angels righty Griffin Canning has a reasonable 4.06 SIERA as a rookie, but his xFIP does sit at an uninspiring 4.65 against left-handed bats. Globe Life Park is also the second-most hitter-friendly venue on the slate, and like yesterday the forecast calls for heat in the 90s.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.