4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/1/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Mike Minor UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-128)
Minor comes into this game posting 8.79 strikeouts per nine innings and is facing a team that doesn't whiff much. The Angels have a 16.5% strikeout rate this season versus lefty pitchers, which is the lowest rate in the league. That doesn't bode well for Minor, who we have projected to pitch only 6.16 innings tonight. He is already under one strikeout per inning, is up against a team that doesn't fan much against lefties, and isn't projected to go deep into the game.
This all lines up for the under hitting on this prop, with very little juice to get the night started.
Ryan Braun To Hit a Home Run (+400)
We see Christian Yelich and Mike Moustakas with very good odds to hit a home run, but if we dig a bit deeper, we can get higher odds for a better payout. Ryan Braun comes in at +400 tonight and is still in a great spot to hit one over the fence considering we have a great park factor in Cincy. Braun has always been good against right-handed pitchers, and that continues this season. He is holding a modest .171 ISO but a very powerful 45.9% hard-hit rate and a 19.4% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio.
I'm not going to say Braun is "due" for a home run, but he has gone 10 games without one and now is at the Great American Ball Park, where he has hit 26 homers in 93 games, per Baseball Reference.
Jeff Samardzija OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-158)
A 4.5 prop doesn't seem that high, which is why there is a decent amount of juice on the over tonight. The Shark only has a 19.9% strikeout rate this season, but he's in a spot to improve that versus the Padres, who are striking out 26.2% of the time versus right-handed pitchers, which is the second-worst clip in the league. Samardzija has managed to post five strikeouts or more in five straight starts.
We have him going for 4.18 strikeouts tonight, but given a bout of recent consistency and now up against the high-whiff Padres, the over looks good in this one.
Joey Gallo To Hit a Home Run (+155)
Joey Gallo and hitting home runs are a popular and frequent pairing, which is why the odds on this prop are rather low.
Our projections have Gallo as the fourth-most likely to hit a home run tonight, and that shouldn't be a surprise since he has a .426 ISO against left-handed pitchers this season, along with an insanely high 41.2% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. Along with that, he is also carrying a 38.4% strikeout rate, thus furthering the current trend in baseball -- walk, home run or strikeout. Regardless of that trend, the Texas Rangers have a 5.57 implied run total tonight as well as the best park factor going for them, putting Gallo in a great spot to cash in on this prop.
He is up against Jose Suarez, who has a very limited sample size this season but is allowing a 62.5% fly-ball rate to lefty hitters, playing right into Gallo's strengths.