4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/25/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Max Scherzer OVER 9.5 Strikeouts (+108)
This is the first of two starts for Max Scherzer this week, and he is going to absolutely destroy opposing hitters, so let's take a look.
Scherzer has a strikeout prop sitting at 9.5 tonight, which is where you would expect it to be with his 33.8% strikeout rate, the second-highest mark on the slate. The great thing about this prop tonight is that the OVER has positive odds on it, which is something we don't often see for Scherzer.
The matchup for him tonight is as soft as it gets, going up against the Miami Marlins, who have a 24.8% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers, the sixth-worst in the league. This is a matchup Scherzer knows well, posting 152 career strikeouts against the Marlins in 135 innings, which is good for 10.1 strikeouts per nine, according to Baseball Reference.
Nomar Mazara To Hit a Home Run (+410)
Nomar Mazara hit a home run over 500 feet a few days ago, and while every dinger might not be that far, he can add another homer to his total tonight.
Mazara is facing off against Jordan Zimmermann, who is allowing 1.80 homers per nine innings to lefties this season, which comes from a 30.4% hard-hit rate and a 41.3% fly-ball rate. Zimmerman has never been a pitcher you have to be afraid of, and, actually, it's very much the opposite -- you want to be stacking against him since he has allowed more than 1.00 homer per nine innings for the last five seasons.
This matchup isn't only about how bad Zimmerman is, but it's also about how good Mazara has been against righty pitchers, as he is carrying a .200 ISO, 51.0% hard-hit rate, and a 31.1% fly-ball rate in the split this season. The prop has amazing odds for a hitter who has three home runs in his last three games and blasts righties.
Shane Bieber OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+124)
Are you a fan of Bieber? Shane Bieber that is, a pitcher who has a great strikeout prop tonight.
Bieber comes in with a very impressive 31.4% strikeout rate this season and is now up against the Kansas City Royals, who have a 22.3% strikeout rate this year versus righty pitchers, which is around league average. He comes in with at least seven strikeouts in three of his last four starts, a level which he should be able to reach tonight, as we have him projected for 7.51 whiffs.
It's certainly a close projection against a team that is in the middle of the pack when it comes to strikeouts, but Bieber should be able to go deep into the game and limit the damage with his 3.23 xFIP, allowing him to get to face extra hitters.
Yasmani Grandal To Hit a Home Run (+300)
Marco Gonzales will be on the mound to oppose the Brewers, and things likely won't end well for him, as he is carrying a 5.40 xFIP, 34.1% hard-hit rate, and a 42.2% fly-ball rate against right-handed hitters. Those aren't horrible numbers, but he has given up 10 total home runs this season, five of which are against righty hitters while on the road. This is the exact situation he struggles with, and you should be looking to take advantage of that.
Yasmani Grandal has equally good numbers versus both lefties and righties in terms of his ISO this season -- .270 versus lefties and .269 versus righties -- but his hard-hit rate jumps up to 52.5% in this split (46.5% versus righties) along with his fly-ball rate going to 44.1% (compared to 37.6% out of split). These are great odds on a prop that looks more and more likely as the stats go on.