5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 6/25/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres ($3,000)
You know something is up in San Diego tonight when you sort our projections by "value" and two Padres bats sit at the top, with Renfroe projected for almost a full fantasy point per $1,000 more than any non-Padre on the slate.
It's hard not to love any offense when they're up against the Baltimore Orioles, and this is no exception. Righty Jimmy Yacabonis will take the mound for the O's, and so far he has an awful 5.35 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in 2019, bringing his major league career average to 5.37. If you expected the guy who only managed a 5.52 xFIP across 12 minor league games this year to suddenly find success in the majors, you deserve the disappointment he's bringing.
Hunter Renfroe may not have the platoon advantage tonight, but he fares just fine in same-sided matchups, with a .351 wOBA and massive .335 ISO over 198 plate appearances this season. If you don't want to put too much faith into that smallish sample, we get similar numbers when including 2018, as well. That raises it to 468 plate appearances, and he still shows a .342 wOBA and .295 ISO on a 48.3% hard-hit and 42.3% fly-ball rate.
Josh Naylor, OF, San Diego Padres ($2,500)
Renfroe is admittedly a little pricey for a value option (but more than worth that salary), and Josh Naylor is a great way to save even more while still getting the Padres' big upside.
Building on the .371 wOBA he posted in Double-A in 2018, Naylor turned in 209 Triple-A plate appearances this year with a .383 wOBA and .239 ISO before being called up. He hasn't produced much at the major league level yet, but it's only been 78 plate appearances, so there's no need to be concerned.
The 22-year-old gets the platoon advantage against Yacabonis, who has been especially egregious against southpaws. He's faced 142 such batters in his three MLB seasons, getting absolutely blasted for a 6.41 xFIP and .373 wOBA.
Bobby Bradley, OF, Cleveland Indians ($2,200)
Notching a double and an RBI in each of his first two major league games has pulled Bradley's price up from the minimum, but he's still dirt cheap at $2,200, and his salary is likely to continue climbing significantly before it evens out.
He absolutely raked in 284 Triple-A plate appearances this year, notching a .408 wOBA and .346 ISO. We obviously can't expect him to keep producing a near-.500 wOBA like he has through two major league games so far, but it's nice to know that this outstanding start comes backed by some terrific minor league numbers.
He gets a boost against a righty pitcher tonight, as well, taking on the Kansas City Royals and Glenn Sparkman. Sparkman has an ugly 5.28 SIERA in 2019 (5.04 career average), and the 185 left-handed hitters he's faced in his three seasons have crushed him for a 5.86 xFIP on a 42.4%.
Jackie Bradley, OF, Boston Red Sox ($2,800)
A boom-or-bust mainstay of the value section, JBJ's price tag is getting a little high compared to what we usually pay for him, but his upside is still worth it.
Last night's home run lifted him to a .172 ISO on the season, which is right in line with his .169 career average, while his .306 wOBA isn't far from the .310 and .313 marks he's posted over the last two years.
He's only really useful against right-handed pitching, but with a .337 wOBA and .210 ISO in the split since 2015, "useful" is probably underselling him a bit. He's also one of the few cheap ways to get exposure to the Boston Red Sox offense tonight, which is often (as it is tonight) a big part of why he's in play.
The Bo Sox have a 6.30-run implied total, meaning you're going to want to do what you can to get a piece of that scoring. Chicago White Sox righty Carson Fulmer hasn't posted a SIERA better than 5.50 since 2016, sporting a career average of 5.52 with a 5.65 mark in 2019. The career 6.17 xFIP he's allowed to left-handed bats makes this another likely "boom" spot for Bradley.
Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers ($3,000)
Gonzales is another guy with a SIERA up above five on the season, with a 5.16 mark over 17 games, which is tied for the eighth-worst among qualifying pitchers on the year. He's really letting righties get the ball in the air, with a 42.2% fly-ball rate and a career-low 14.2% soft-hit rate, and Braun can certainly take advantage of that.
Even in a down year, Braun has a .327 wOBA and a powerful .192 ISO over 270 plate appearances, while his 45.5% hard-hit rate is as good as ever.
Braun only has a .190 BABIP against southpaws, holding his production way back (he has a .327 career average in the split), so regression also stands to give his numbers a big boost moving forward. A matchup with Gonzales is a great place for that to start.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.