4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/24/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Eduardo Rodriguez OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)
A modest 6.5 strikeout prop for Eduardo Rodriguez tonight has great odds, but will the matchup allow him to hit the over?
Rodriguez is at home and up against the Chicago White Sox, who come in with a 23.9% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is 14th in the league, making this a middle of the road matchup. Rodriguez comes in with a 25.2% strikeout rate this season, which is the third highest on the slate, and he was able to post six strikeouts against the White Sox in a meeting earlier this season.
Our projections have Rodriquez going for 6.58 strikeouts tonight, which is the highest on the slate, and would also have him hitting the over on this strikeout prop.
Clayton Kershaw OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Clayton Kershaw is the most expensive pitcher in terms of DFS tonight, but does that mean he is primed for a ton of strikeouts?
A 23.6% strikeout on the year for Kershaw is a bit lower than we've seen him over the course of his career, but a strikeout prop of only 5.5 tonight is firmly within reach. He is facing off against a familiar division opponent, Arizona Diamondbacks, which is why our projections have him going for 5.97 strikeouts tonight.
Kershaw has dominated the Diamondbacks throughout his career, posting 220 strikeouts in 194.2 innings pitched, which is good for 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings, according to Baseball Reference. There is very little juice on the over tonight and even with a lower strikeout rate overall this season, Kershaw should be able to knock down the Diamondbacks tonight.
Freddie Freeman To Hit a Home Run (+220)
A lefty versus lefty matchup might not be ideal for some hitters, but Freddie Freeman is as elite as they come, and still has a good chance to go deep tonight.
Freeman comes in with All-Star level numbers versus same-sided pitchers, including a .405 wOBA, .286 ISO, and a 43.3% fly-ball rate, which should put him in a good spot to cash in on his home run prop. He is facing off against Jon Lester, who he's been able to beat in the past, with six hits and two home runs in 22 at-bats over his career.
Plenty of power, a high fly-ball rate, a bit of historic success, and to top it all off, Wrigley Field is set to have 15 mph winds blowing out towards right-center tonight -- all factors that put Freeman in a great spot.
Gary Sanchez To Hit a Home Run (+155)
Gary Sanchez didn't hit a home run yesterday, which is actually a surprise considering he had a three-game streak going. Will he get a new streak started tonight?
According to our projections, Sanchez is the fourth most likely to hit a home run tonight, so let's take a look at why. The New York Yankees have an implied run total set at 6.30, which is the highest on the slate. That comes in part due to the fact they are up against Aaron Sanchez, who has a 5.92 xFIP, allowing 1.54 homers per nine innings, and 37.4% hard-hit rate versus right-handed hitters this season.
Allowing hard contact against a hitter like Sanchez can be a recipe for disaster, since he comes in with a 47.2% hard-hit rate and a 52.8% fly-ball rate versus righty pitchers this season. Sanchez comes in implied as the most likely Yankees' hitter to hit a home run tonight at +155, which means the odds aren't amazing, but they are still positive odds for a red-hot hitter.