4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/19/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Tommy La Stella To Hit a Home Run (+350)
One of those players in a good spot to hit one over the fence tonight is Tommy La Stella, who is in the midst of his best year as a Major Leaguer, and that shouldn't stop tonight versus Aaron Sanchez. La Stella comes in with a .241 ISO, 43.1% hard-hit rate and a 36.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.
Over his last five starts (a small sample size) Sanchez is carrying a 34.9% hard-hit rate and a 16.0% home-run-to-fly-ball rate. Those numbers are worse than his season stats, so regression might come for him at some point, but if he is getting hit hard right now, take advantage of it while you can.
Asdrubal Cabrera To Hit a Home Run (+360)
The Cleveland Indians will have Adam Plutko on the mound tonight and let me tell you, he isn't a good pitcher. He comes in allowing a .249 wOBA to lefties this season, and you might say, "oh wow, that's good," except for the fact he also has a 5.89 xFIP while allowing 1.54 homers per nine innings and a 52.9% fly-ball rate in the split.
Those are legitimately some of the worst numbers you will find on this slate, and when Asdrubal Cabrera comes in with a .205 ISO versus right-handed pitchers this season, he is in a perfect spot to hit one deep. It also helps that Cabrera is getting the ball in the air versus righty pitchers this season with a 43.0% fly-ball rate. These are great odds on Cabrera in a fantastic hitting environment.
Zack Greinke UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Even in his 16th Major League season, Zack Greinke is going out there putting up solid outings but is his strikeout prop worth considering tonight?
On the season, Greinke has a 23.7% strikeout rate, which will often be looked at as "fine," but that has been changing in his most recent eight starts, dropping down to an even less appealing 20.5%. We have a pitcher who isn't cutting hitters down at the plate to begin with and is now doing that even less frequently.
It also doesn't help that his fastball velocity is in the bottom 11th percentile of the league, according to Baseball Savant. The under has positive odds and is in a good spot to hit based on his recent outings.
Drew Pomeranz UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+114)
A 4.5 strikeout prop seems low, but Drew Pomeranz could easily go under that in what could be a short outing.
Right now, our projections have Pomeranz going for just 3.82 strikeouts and 4.52 innings pitched. Neither of those are good numbers, and when you are facing the Los Angeles Dodgers and their 4.50 implied run total, it could be a short game for him.
Pomeranz and his 23.7% strikeout rate are very average this season (see Greinke above), but in this case, I almost want to bet on the strength of the Dodgers' lineup to knock him out of the game early, thus preventing him the chance to even see a ton of hitters.
Essentially, bet on the power of the Dodgers to help cash this prop at positive odds.