5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 6/18/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians ($2,500)
The Cleveland Indians own the highest implied total (5.41 runs) on the slate, and that big mark comes for a few reasons. Globe Life Park is the most hitter-friendly ballpark on tonight's slate, the forecast calls for 92-degree heat in Texas, and the Rangers will be starting righty Adrian Sampson on the mound.
Sampson hasn't had looked especially good at either the Triple-A level (4.74 xFIP in 126 2/3 innings last year) or the major league level (4.99 xFIP over 72 2/3 innings this year).
Jason Kipnis doesn't offer anything too exciting from the dish, but he's sporting a hard-hit rate above 35% against righties for the third time in the last four years, and in that time he has turned his solid contact into a reasonable .326 wOBA and .181 ISO in the split. Not huge numbers, but enough to make him worth playing to get cheap exposure to one of the night's most promising offenses.
Robbie Grossman, OF, Oakland Athletics ($2,800)
Ynoa has struggled to the tune of a 4.75 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) so far this season, bringing his major league average to 4.55. The O's also have one of the worst relief groups in the majors, with the fourth-worst SIERA.
Grossman is another somewhat underwhelming switch hitter, but his .316 wOBA in that split isn't terrible, and since 2017 he has turned in a .318 wOBA in the split.
Again, those aren't numbers that would usually have us scrambling to play a hitter, but there aren't a ton of cheap ways to get exposure to the A's tonight, and the potential for runs and RBI from the strong offense around him gives Grossman a nice boost.
Matt Beaty, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers ($2,100)
Another young pitcher that could be in for a long night (or a short night, as it were) is San Francisco's Shaun Anderson. The 24-year-old notched a 4.45 xFIP in eight Triple-A starts last year, a 4.18 in seven Triple-A starts this year, and so far has a 4.27 xFIP over six major league starts.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a stout 4.90 implied total tonight, and while that doesn't stack up among the slate's top marks, they're in a big crowd of five teams between 4.88 and 5.00 implied runs.
Admittedly, Matt Beaty hasn't had any major league success, either, with a .285 wOBA over 54 plate appearances. He had a promising .368 wOBA with only a 9.9% strikeout rate in 121 Triple-A plate appearances this year, though, and his lack of big league production does come with a strong 41.9% hard-hit rate.
His struggles have him priced only $100 above the minimum, but with the great contact he's making and the platoon advantage against Anderson, that's way too cheap.
Jung Ho Kang, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates ($2,300)
Kang has been really underwhelming in 2019, with a .231 wOBA and .176 ISO over 117 plate appearances. Like Beaty, that still comes with fine contact numbers, though, sporting a 34.7% hard-hit rate, 12.5% soft-hit rate and 37.5% fly-ball rate.
Norris has a weak 4.66 SIERA through 14 games in 2019, and he's been crushed for a 42.2% hard-hit rate and 11.9% soft-hit rate by right-handed bats. He's also allowed a .334 wOBA and 4.60 xFIP in that split over his career.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays ($2,900)
Guerrero hasn't quite lived up to the hype that he carried heading into the 2019 season, but in his defense that level of hype was never going to be a realistic expectation for his first season.
That's not to say that he hasn't been playing well, either. His .325 wOBA and .184 ISO are fine marks, and considering his .283 BABIP is fairly low when you factor in his 40.9% hard-hit and 16.5% soft-hit rate, he may actually be getting a little unlucky on the production front.
Skaggs isn't the scariest southpaw in the world, either. He flashed some promise in 2018, but that was sandwiched between a 2017 season that saw him notch a 4.44 SIERA and a 2019 campaign in which he has opened with a 4.50 SIERA over 12 games. Since 2017, he's allowed a .335 wOBA and 4.26 xFIP on a 39.8% hard-hit rate to right-handed bats.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.