4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/13/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Zack Greinke OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Greinke comes in with a 24.4% strikeout rate this season, which is the sixth highest of any pitcher in action tonight, and with his prop at only at 5.5 punchouts, you should be looking at this as a prime spot to attack. Our projections have him posting 5.76 strikeouts tonight, which would hit on the over and cash this prop.
The Nationals come in with a 23.7% strikeout rate, which is 10th-worst in the league. The overall matchup, the projections, and favorable odds makes this a prop bet to gamble on tonight.
Luke Voit To Hit a Home Run (+240)
Nova comes in with a 5.11 xFIP, 1.60 homers allowed per nine innings, and a low 16.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters this season. He is getting blasted by righties, and when it comes down to it, he really doesn't have a pitch to get them out easily. This should all play in the favor of Luke Voit, who is currently projected as our fifth-most likely hitter to go deep tonight.
This should come as no surprise since he is carrying a powerful .249 ISO, 39.2% hard-hit rate, and 33.8% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. The Yankees have an implied total set at 5.60, and they should pop a few long balls versus Nova.
Jacob deGrom OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (-104)
The former Cy Young winner is taking the bump tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals, who can't hit righty pitchers right now.
For the entire season, the Cardinals have a 22.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (10th-lowest in the league), which is actually solid overall. But since the start of June (a small size, admittedly) the Cardinals have a 27.1% strikeout rate in the split (second-worst in the league). A clear shift from where they are, and, yes, regression will likely have them move back towards their season-long 22.5%, but if they are struggling right now, you want to jump on them while you can.
There might not be a better way to do so than going with Jacob deGrom, who comes in carrying a 29.8% strikeout rate, the second-best of any pitcher in action tonight. There is very, very little juice on the over, which isn't normally something we see for a pitcher of deGrom's caliber.
New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox OVER 9.5 Runs (-118)
As mentioned above, Ivan Nova is on the mound tonight, and he isn't a good pitcher by really any metric. But if you must know, he has a 4.63 xFIP, 4.92 SIERA, and 14.4% strikeout rate. The Yankees absolutely crush right-handed pitchers, holding a 115 wRC+, .208 ISO, and 10.0% walk rate in the split.
On the other side, J.A. Happ has been pretty blah with his 4.70 xFIP, 1.92 home runs per nine innings, and 41.4% hard-contact rate. Happ struggles even more against right-handed hitters, and the White Sox will likely roll out eight righty bats in their lineup tonight.
All of this should lead to plenty of offense on both sides.