5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 6/12/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
*Editor's note* Edwin Jackson was a late scratch this afternoon, and the Blue Jays will open a bullpen game with right-handed reliever Derek Law
Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays ($2,400)
Get ready for a lot of talk about tonight's game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles. There's no over/under set for this one on FanDuel Sportsbook yet, but with David Hess and Edwin Jackson clashing on the mound, offense should be plentiful.
Despite this, a combined 14 of the 18 hitters projected to be in the lineups for this game are priced at or below $3,000.
Rowdy Tellez might not be living up to the huge .392 wOBA he flashed late in 2019, but he's still sporting a .194 ISO this year, and over 268 career major league plate appearances he's showing a .319 wOBA and .224 ISO.
Just looking at his splits against right-handed pitching (196 plate appearances) that jumps to a .332 wOBA and .234 ISO on a 40.9% hard-hit rate. That gives him some huge upside against a righty like Hess, who has a career 5.38 xFIP against left-handed bats.
Eric Sogard, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays ($2,900)
It's not just Hess who makes the Toronto offense an appealing one tonight -- the Orioles' relievers continue to struggle this year, and their collective 4.85 xFIP is the seventh-worst for any team.
Eric Sogard is projected to bat leadoff tonight, putting him in a prime position to take advantage of a lot of the scoring that the Jays are likely to do in this spot, and like Tellez, he gets the platoon advantage against Hess.
He doesn't offer nearly the same power that Tellez does, but Sogard's .350 wOBA and .196 ISO over 163 plate appearances this season are still strong marks for a guy priced this low, and they come backed up by a 38.0% hard-hit and 42.2% fly-ball rate.
Anthony Santander, OF, Baltimore Orioles ($2,400)
On the other side, the Blue Jays' relievers sit in the middle of the pack with a 4.53 xFIP, and we can expect them to be called upon for plenty of work with Edwin Jackson starting.
The Jays are Jackson's eighth team since the 2015 season, and with a look at his numbers it's clear to see why he hasn't been able to find a long-term home. His 2015 season wasn't bad -- a 4.27 SIERA isn't great, but it's at least a fine mark. Since then, though, his best season saw him post a 4.98 SIERA over 17 games in 2018, while he hasn't been below 5.00 in 2016, 2017 or 2019.
The switch-hitting Santander has made 115 major league plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, and while he hasn't produced well in that sample (.290 wOBA) the small sample means we don't need to be too concerned about that, especially when it has come on a 37.0% hard-hit and 42.9% fly-ball rate.
Most of those appearances came in the 2017 and 2018 seasons, too, and so far he's been a beast in a tiny five-game sample in 2019, recording seven hits (including two doubles and one home run) in 21 plate appearances.
Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles ($2,100)
Davis was the laughing stock of the DFS world early in 2019, even getting himself priced way down at $500 (one quarter of the usual minimum salary) for a while. It was inevitable that he would regress to at least not being held without any hits, but so far that's about all the praise you can give his production, which includes a .239 wOBA.
There are still signs that things will get even better, though. He's kept up his impressive contact, pairing a 39.0% hard-hit rate with a career-low 8.5% soft-hit rate and a solid 40.2% fly-ball rate, but his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) still hasn't cracked .250. His .247 mark falls well below his career average of .303, despite his above-average contact.
He's hitting the ball especially well against right-handed pitching (45.3% hard-hits), and a soft matchup with Jackson gives him a ton of upside while he's priced only $100 above the minimum.
Tyler Austin, 1B, San Francisco Giants ($2,300)
If you're not quite so excited about that AL East matchup, our models have Austin as the third-best point-per-dollar fantasy value among the hitters on the main slate.
His .337 wOBA in 2019 is a fine mark (and builds on a .325 wOBA from 2018), but what really makes him appealing is his power, following last year's .250 ISO with .235 so far in 2019.
He's managed a 38.6% hard-hit rate with only 6.8% soft-hits on the year, and his outstanding career numbers against southpaws (.392 wOBA and .310 ISO over 203 plate appearances) make it even easier to like him against San Diego Padres lefty Joey Lucchesi, who has allowed a career 41.9% hard-hit rate and 36.7% fly-ball rate against right-handed pitchers.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.