DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 6/11/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
Chris Paddack ($10,600 on DraftKings): There is plenty to be excited for, for Chris Paddack, but there are also a few concerns in his numbers as well. He has a great 27.4 percent strikeout rate and a 5.0 percent walk rate, which is awesome. However, his 45.3 percent hard-hit rate and 40.4 percent fly-ball rate are concerning. His matchup against the San Francisco Giants is an elite one as they have a 23.5 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching — the 11th most — as well as a 28th ranked .285 wOBA.
Patrick Corbin ($10,300): In his first season with the Washington Nationals, Patrick Corbin has been very good. He has a 26.7 percent strikeout rate and has limited opponents to just a 17.5 percent line-drive rate. The lefty has a matchup with plenty of upside as he visits the Chicago White Sox — a team that strikes out at a 24.9 percent clip which is the 13th-most in the Majors. Additionally, their .300 wOBA against southpaws ranks as the 23rd-best. If Corbin can avoid his 35.8 percent hard-hit rate tonight, he should be in for a solid game.
Darwinzon Hernandez ($6,900): He only has 2.1 innings in the Majors and other than that has not played anything higher than AA ball. However, Darwinzon Hernandez had an elite strikeout rate in Double-A this season with a 31.4 percent rate and in 2018 his numbers were just as good with a 31.3 percent strikeout rate. Additionally, he is rocking a 3.77 xFIP this season with a matchup tonight against the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have some pop in their bats, but against left-handed pitching, they have struck out 26.9 percent of the time — fourth-most in the Majors — and their 21st ranked .305 wOBA doesn't scare many people off either.
Hitters to Target
Anthony Rizzo ($5,600): Anthony Rizzo has been smashing right-handed pitching this season and gets the opportunity to do so in Coors Field. He too German Marquez yard last night and will face Colorado Rockies right-handed rookie Peter Lambert this evening. So far this season, Rizzo has tuned up right-handed pitchers with his incredible .418 wOBA and .301 ISO. Lambert has been rocking a 4.82 xFIP and a 19.8 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A ball this season. This is not a good situation for him to be making his second career start.
Nolan Arenado ($5,600): On the other side of the Coors game, the Rockies will take on Chicago Cubs' left-hander Jose Quintana — a pitcher that has really struggled to generate swings-and-misses as his 9.4 swinging strike rate would indicate. In addition, his 37.5 percent hard-hit rate and 30.5 percent hard-hit rate have led to an 11.9 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. This spells trouble for the Cubs southpaw as Nolan Arenado has smashed left-handed pitching, as always, this season. His ridiculous .470 wOBA and .397 ISO may seem like they are the result of a small 70 plate appearance sample size. However, in 2018 his numbers were similar over 206 plate appearances with a .488 wOBA and .379 ISO in this split.
Josh Bell ($5,000): One of the biggest surprises on the season is the switch-hitting Josh Bell and the incredibly elite power he has brought to the plate — especially against right-handed pitchers. While his numbers against lefties are solid with a .370 wOBA And .279 ISO, his numbers against righties are among the best in the league. With a .442 wOBA and .355 ISO, Bell has crushed righties and that is a big issue for Atlanta Braves' Mike Foltynewicz. Folty has given up an abysmal 46.5 percent hard-hit rate and 45.6 percent fly-ball rate which has resulted in a slate-worst and embarrassing 24/2 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate.
Josh Donaldson ($3,700): After being ejected in last nights game, there is no doubt that Josh Donaldson is going to want to come out and smash the Pittsburgh Pirates. Now, this is not the MVP Josh Donaldson from a few years back, so we cannot necessarily count on it like we seemingly could before, but Donaldson will want revenge. He has actually been solid against right-handed pitching this season, despite other struggles, with a .353 wOBA And .214 ISO. It is not elite by any means, but those numbers against a matchup with the struggling Chris Archer, I don't mind Donaldson tonight. Archer has had a lot of trouble with his control this season with an 11.8 percent walk rate. Additionally, he has given up a 1.84 HR/9 which works well for Donaldson if he can bring the rain.
Chris Davis ($2,700): There is never a guarantee that Chris Davis makes it into the lineup against even right-handed pitching, so be sure to check. But he has a good matchup tonight against Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Trent Thornton. Thornton has really struggled with a 37.9 percent hard-hit rate and a slate-worst 29.1 percent line-drive rate. He also has an 11.2 percent walk rate which is horrendous. Davis hasn't been very good, but he is still capable of getting the ball deep and that's what we're hoping for just $2,700.
Travis Shaw ($2,600): Similar to Davis, Travis Shaw has been brutal this season. Now, the difference is, Shaw was very good against right-handed pitching last season so there is a reason to believe he can bounce back. In 2018, he had a .374 wOBA and .285 ISO against righties whereas in 2019 those numbers are down to a .287 wOBA and .143 ISO. He doesn't necessarily have a good matchup or anything as he takes on Houston Astros' Brad Peacock, but if there is any saving grace it will be that Peacock has given up a 39.0 percent hard-hit rate and gotten a bit lucky with a .262 BABIP and a 3.20 ERA vs. a 4.05 SIERA.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.