5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 6/10/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Dominic Smith, OF, New York Mets ($2,400)
Smith also doesn't need an especially soft matchup to offer big upside, especially when he has the platoon advantage. He's mashed a .440 wOBA in 88 plate appearances versus righties this season.
That's a sharp departure from what we saw in his first couple major league campaigns, but one thing that has been consistent over his career is some strong contact numbers against right-handed pitching, including a career 35.2% hard-hit rate and 37.6% fly-ball rate.
Tanaka is giving up a .353 wOBA on a 37.4% hard-hit rate to left-handed bats this season, and Smith could have a big day in this one.
Matt Adams, 1B, Washington Nationals ($2,700)
The Chicago White Sox are starting righty Odrisamer Despaigne tonight, which should mean big things for the Washington Nationals. Despaigne hasn't pitched a major league game so far in 2019, but in 19 appearance in 2018, he managed a 4.57 SIERA, bringing his MLB career average to 4.70. He also got cracked for a career-high 38.6% hard-hit rate in 2018.
Matt Adams has a fairly weak wOBA (.316) so far this year, but his .225 ISO (not far from his marks of .222, .248 and .239 from the last three seasons) shows he can still bring plenty of power.
His 39.7% hard-hit rate sits as his best since 2013, and it's paired with a 37.5% fly-ball rate. His batted-ball profile is even more impressive against righties, with a 40.7% hard-hit rate, 11.1% soft-hit rate and 41.5% fly-ball rate. Adams remains a huge power threat in this spot.
Howie Kendrick, 1B, Washington Nationals ($2,900)
Kendrick may not get the platoon advantage, but that's not nearly enough to take him out of play here.
A price of $2,900 is bizarrely cheap for a guy with a .393 wOBA and .269 ISO over 173 plate appearances this season. Even if you think he's due for some regression (as his 25.6% home-run-per-fly-ball rate would suggest), his 2017 (.361 wOBA and .161 ISO) and 2018 (.342 wOBA and .171 ISO) numbers are still strong enough that this is a low price-tag for such a good matchup.
Kendrick is also making better contact in 2019 than we've ever seen from him, turning in a 43.7% hard-hit rate and 11.1% soft-hit rate.
Righty-righty matchups have been fine for Kendrick this year (.376 wOBA and .291 ISO on a 44.0% hard-hit rate), so he shouldn't have any issues taking advantage of the date with Despaigne.
Jarrod Dyson, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks ($2,800)
This is another spot where you'll want to keep an eye on the weather, but if it plays, then we get a nice low price-tag on Arizona Diamondbacks leadoff hitter Jarrod Dyson.
Dyson looks better from the dish this season, with a .315 wOBA coming on a carer-best 26.3% hard-hit rate. That's still pretty poor, obviously, but you roster him for his speed and place in the lineup.
He's getting on base well -- his 11.4% walk rate is tied for a career-best -- and once he's on base, he can really start to rack up fantasy points. He's stolen 14 bases in 175 plate appearances this season, which is tied for the fifth-most stolen bases in the majors. Everyone with more steals than Dyson has at least 26 more plate appearances than he does.
Philadelphia Phillies righty Jerad Eickhoff has a 4.40 SIERA to open his 2019 season, and last year's injury woes may be lingering, as his average fastball velocity is down by almost one mile per hour from where it sat in his last healthy season.
Eduardo Nunez, 2B, Boston Red Sox ($2,300)
Nunez isn't the most exciting hitter around, but there's always something to be said for getting cheap exposure to the Boston Red Sox.
While Minor has shown some improvement this season, he hasn't been nearly as deadly as his 2.55 ERA might suggest. His SIERA sits at 3.98, and his 7.8% walk rate is his highest since 2011. He's also giving up a 36.6% hard-hit rate, which sits well above his 32.7% career average, and he's been tagged for a worrying 39.5% hard-hit rate by right-handed bats.
Nunez's surface numbers look skewed this year, too, as he's managed just a .250 BABIP, compared to a .302 career average. He's also making decent contact against southpaws, with a 34.1% hard-hit rate and 38.6% fly-ball rate, so he's got a good chance of putting some dangerous balls in play against Minor.
On a slate with most of the exciting value being on the more expensive end of the value range, getting Nunez for only $300 above the minimum salary is a nice added bonus.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.