5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 6/7/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Eric Thames, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers ($2,900)
The Milwaukee Brewers offense stands out even on this big slate, leading the way with a 5.78-run implied total. They're up against Pittsburgh Pirates righty Rookie Davis, who owns a shaky 5.08 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) over 31.2 major league innings, and who struggled to the tune of an ugly 5.58 xFIP in 37 Triple-A innings in 2019.
Eric Thames is always a risky play, sporting a strikeout rate around 35% for the second straight year and always a candidate to be pinch-hit for if a southpaw comes in, but his upside is worth it.
Since returning to the MLB in 2017, Thames has made 823 plate appearances against righties, smacking them for a .366 wOBA and .268 ISO on a 45.4% hard-hit and 43.0% fly-ball rate. It's not often you get home run upside like this priced below $3,000.
Travis Shaw, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers ($2,400)
Travis Shaw hasn't been as bad as his surface stats might lead you to believe in 2019.
Yes, his .247 wOBA, .120 ISO and 32.1% strikeout rate all suck. He's making some terrific contact though, with a career-high 40.0% hard-hit rate, an 18.9% soft-hit rate that sits slightly below his career-average (19.2%) and a big 47.2% fly-ball rate.
Despite this, he only has a 9.5% home run-to-fly-ball (HR/FB) rate, while his career-average there sits at 16.1%. He's also only got a .233 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), compared to a .283 career-average.
Since joining the Brewers in 2017 he has a strong .362 wOBA and .252 ISO on a 41.8% hard-hit and 43.0% fly-ball rate against right-handed pitching. He carries a lot of the same risk that Thames does tonight, but like Thames, his upside makes him well worth taking a risk on.
Chris Taylor, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers ($2,300)
When the Los Angeles Dodgers are up against a southpaw we tend to be able to find some nice cheap value in their lineup.
Chris Taylor is often one of the best ways to do it, with a sound .336 wOBA and .198 ISO in the split since 2017. He's also making solid contact against lefties this year, with a 35.3% hard-hit and 13.7% soft-hit rate.
Tonight's matchup isn't an especially worrying one either, as Drew Pomeranz has an egregious 5.14 xFIP against right-handed bats going back to 2018.
Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays ($2,300)
It's no surprise to see a team with a high implied total against Kelly, as he's only managed a 4.80 SIERA over 12 major league starts, getting tagged for a 38.7% hard-hit rate.
Rowdy Tellez hasn't lived up to his outstanding 73-game stretch in the majors from 2018, but he's still showing plenty of power. His wOBA is down to .304 (from a huge .392), and while his ISO is also well down (from .300) it still sits at a powerful .203, giving him a .329 wOBA and .231 ISO over 260 major league plate appearances.
He's especially dangerous against right-handed pitching, turning a 41.3% hard-hit and 37.3% fly-ball rate into a .342 wOBA and .242 ISO.
Ryan O'Hearn, 1B, Kansas City Royals ($2,300)
Nova was already looking pretty shaky in his last couple seasons, failing to post a SIERA better than 4.40 or a strikeout rate better than 16.7% in 2017 or 2018. He's fallen even further off the rails in 2019, with a 5.07 SIERA and 13.5% strikeout rate, while his walk rate has jumped a full percentage point to 6.1%.
O'Hearn has made 294 plate appearances against righties over his first two major league seasons, combining for a .359 wOBA and .265 ISO on a 44.1% hard-hit and 41.0% fly-ball rate.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.