4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/6/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Trevor Bauer OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Trevor Bauer is one of the top overall pitchers in action tonight and comes in with a strikeout prop of 7.5 with very little juice on the over.
Bauer comes into tonight with a 27.0% strikeout rate this season, which is the highest of any pitcher in action, and that is shown by our models projecting him for 8.55 strikeouts, over a full strikeout higher than the next pitcher. He has posted eight or more strikeouts in four of his last seven starts, with two of those games being up at 10 strikeouts.
The matchup for him is tougher overall since the Minnesota Twins are good this season, but over the course of his career, he has handled them easily. In 116.0 innings pitched against the Twins, he has 121 strikeouts, which is good for 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Everything is lining up for Bauer to hit the over tonight along with great odds on the prop.
Rougned Odor To Hit a Home Run (+390)
The short answer to the question above is yes. Yes, we will see some home runs tonight, and they should be coming from the Rangers' side of things since they are up against David Hess, who is in his second Major League season, and if we looking back to last year, we see that he allowed 2.55 home runs per nine innings to lefty hitters, along with posting a 5.64 xFIP, and a 45.5% fly-ball rate. Woah.
Those are some seriously bad numbers that won't play well in the best hitter's park on the slate, along with the temperature set to be up at 88 degrees at first pitch. Rougned Odor is significantly better against right-handed pitchers and with his .201 ISO, he is in a perfect spot to hit one over the fence.
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres UNDER 7.5 runs (-106)
That run total is the lowest on the slate, and the under is looking strong considering who is on the mound for each side. Joey Lucchesi is starting for the Padres, and he has been fantastic at home this season with a 3.54 xFIP and 38 strikeouts in 41 innings pitched while allowing a .203 average to opposing hitters. On the other side, the Nationals have Patrick Corbin going, who should be able to handle a Padres lineup that has an 89 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers this season.
It's shaping up to a be a bit of a pitchers' duel, which should only be aided by the strong park factor, thus bolstering the likelihood the under 7.5 hits.
New York Yankees Moneyline (-190)
This sets up to be the first series the Yankees have lost in their last 10, but they are looking to salvage the last game. The moneyline is pretty heavily in their favor, and the odds aren't amazing, but it does bring a certain level of "safety." Take that safety with a grain of salt since they've lost the last two, though they are significantly better overall and have won 15 of their last 20 games as the favorite, according to Killer Sports.
Our models have the Yankees projected for 5.40 runs, which is the second highest on the slate, while the Blue Jays are only at 4.10 runs tonight.