5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 6/6/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Rougned Odor, 2B, Texas Rangers ($2,800)
Tonight's the Texas Rangers will host the Baltimore Orioles at Globe Life Park -- the most hitter-friendly digs on the slate, and one of only two ballparks on the main slate with a park factor above 1.000. The forecast calls for 88-degree heat with a moderate wind blowing out, and this game's got a big 11-run over/under over on FanDuel Sportsbook. The next-highest mark for a game on tonight's main slate is only 9.5 runs.
The favored Rangers also get a nice offensive boost from their matchup against a weak Baltimore pitching staff that will be led tonight by David Hess. Hess has an awful 5.21 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) through 12 games in 2019, bringing his major league career average to 5.12 over 33 games.
Rougned Odor is always going to be a low-floor fantasy bat, with a high strikeout rate (up to 33.2% this year) and low wOBA (.240 in 2019, .309 career average), but his power still leaves him offering plenty of upside -- especially against a righty.
He's only sporting a .159 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against righties this year, which isn't at all sustainable, but over his career he's showing a .316 wOBA (on a .273 BABIP) with a .212 ISO in the split. Hitter-friendly conditions and a plus pitching matchup give him a great ceiling for someone priced as low as he is.
Delino DeShields, OF, Texas Rangers ($2,500)
DeShields is not a threatening hitter, and he doesn't get the platoon advantage tonight, but there's still reason to be excited about him here.
He's always done a great job drawing walks, with double-digit walk rates in three of his first four seasons, and he's ramped that up to a career-best 14.2% in 2019. Getting those free bases so often, he's stolen nine bases in 120 plate appearances this year. He's notched at least 20 steals in three of his first four seasons, but this year's rate of one steal per 13.3 plate appearances tops his previous career best of one per 15.2.
Hess is sitting on a career 8.4% walk rate, and so far handedness hasn't mattered, still allowing an 8.3% mark to right-handed hitters. DeShields has also walked slightly more (10.7%) against righties over his career, so he should have no trouble getting on base tonight, where his stolen base upside and the potential to score runs in such a highly-projected offense makes him another high-upside play.
D.J. Stewart, OF, Baltimore Orioles ($2,000)
Even the underdogs can offer some big fantasy value in a game that should have this much scoring, too -- especially when they're priced at the stone-minimum.
The Rangers will roll out Ariel Jurado on the mound, who hasn't been nearly as good as his 2.43 ERA might indicate this season. That's not to say he's pitched poorly, but a 4.29 SIERA is nothing to write home about, and it still comes with a hefty 35.8% hard-hit rate, bringing his career average to 40.5%.
DJ Stewart is priced so low because he's yet to hit his stride in the majors this season. But he's only made 25 plate appearances, so there's really no need to be concerned. We've seen him look the opposite in a similarly small sample, too, with a .373 wOBA in 47 plate appearances in 2018.
In between those two stints, we get a 187-game Triple-A sample from 2019, and he absolutely raked for a .426 wOBA and .270 ISO in that stretch. He's got some serious potential from the dish, and this is a great spot to show it off.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Toronto Blue Jays ($2,000)
The Rogers Centre is the other hitter-friendly park on the slate, and the Toronto Blue Jays will host J.A. Happ (no stranger to those digs after pitching a few seasons in Toronto) and the New York Yankees.
The 36-year-old Happ looks to be taking a step back this season, with a 4.38 SIERA that marks his worst since 2013, while he's also giving up a career-high 41.0% hard-hit rate with a 42.2% fly-ball rate. His average fastball velocity is also down significantly, from 91.9 miles per hour in each of the last two seasons to 90.4 in 2019.
Teoscar Hernandez is having a rough year from the dish (.253 wOBA), but he has shown some promise against southpaws over his career, with a .319 wOBA and .234 ISO as well as a 9.0% walk rate in 279 plate appearances. That kind of power is easy to like for the minimum salary.
Chad Pinder, OF, Oakland Athletics ($2,300)
Pinder's hitting fairly well for a guy priced this low, with a .321 wOBA and .184 ISO on the season, bringing his career averages to .321 and .192.
He's only made 60 plate appearances against southpaws but has a strong .366 wOBA and .250 ISO in that split, building on the .361 wOBA and .178 ISO he posted in 152 plate appearances last year. He has a career 48.0% hard-hit rate and 35.3% fly-ball rate against lefties.
That should spell trouble for Los Angeles Angels southpaw Tyler Skaggs tonight. Skaggs has a middling 4.32 SIERA this season (his third time above 4.30 in the last four seasons), and since 2016, he's allowed a .333 wOBA and 4.19 xFIP to right-handed hitters.
Our models have Pinder as one of the five best point-per-dollar values among hitters on the main slate.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.