4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/5/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Chris Sale OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Chris Sale is destroying hitters right now and there is no reason to shy away from him right now, so let's take a look.
He has a strikeout prop sitting at 8.5 with a bit of juice on the over, but that is worth considering tonight given his recent form. Sale comes in with double-digit strikeouts in five of his last six starts dating back to May 3rd, giving him a flat-out absurd 43.1% strikeout rate in that span. Hitters stand little chance against him right now since he is causing a 16.5% swinging strike rate since May 3rd.
Surprisingly, our models only have Sale projected for 7.59 strikeouts tonight versus the Kansas City Royals, who have a 24.8% strikeout rate (10th worst in the league) versus lefty pitchers this season. Despite the lower projection, Sale's form has been unbelievable recently and he should be able to handle the Royals easily tonight and hit the over on this strikeout prop.
Carlos Carrasco OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-152)
A 6.5 strikeout prop for Carrasco is somewhat modest tonight considering our projections have him set for 7.51 strikeouts, a full strikeout higher than his prop. Those projections should be an encouraging sign since he has a strong 28.7% strikeout rate on the season and averaging one strikeout per inning in his career versus the Twins.
Carrasco might not be having the best season from a fantasy perspective or a real-life perspective, but he is striking out hitters along the way and should be able to continue that tonight.
Mike Moustakas to Hit a Home Run (+200)
The Milwaukee Brewers got pummeled last night but today presents a juicy matchup for them to score plenty of runs.
The visiting Miami Marlins will have Sandy Alcantara on the mound, who has a 5.81 xFIP to left-handed hitters along with allowing 1.16 homers per nine innings. He's not good against lefty hitters, there is really no other way to put it, which means you want to target lefty power bats against him who have the chance to go deep. One such hitter is Mike Moustakas, who comes in with great odds on his home run prop tonight and the power to do so. Moustakas is carrying a super strong .333 ISO, 49.1% hard-hit rate, and a 49.6% fly-ball rate.
Those are some of the best splits you will find on this slate and that is shown with our projections having Moustakas at the top of the home run category tonight, further proving his home run prop to be a good one.
New York Yankees Run Line -1.5 (-124)
Yes, Big Maple is in Toronto tonight, the site of his no-hitter last year and will look to repeat some of that magic against the Toronto Blue Jays, which shouldn't be too tough since they have a 77 wRC+ (27th in the league) and a .140 ISO (24th in the league) versus left-handed pitchers. Toronto simply doesn't provide a threat tonight, which is why our models have Paxton projected to allow just 1.86 runs. The Yankees have an implied run total set at 4.84, which will put them in a spot to cover the -1.5 run line.
Since April 16th, Paxton has five starts under his belt and the Yankees have covered the run line in four of those games, according to Killer Sports. Paxton keeps the opposing team in check, while the Yankees offense does their thing and posts plenty of runs.