MLB

5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 5/15/19

Jason Schandl  —  @JasonSchandl May 15th, 2019
The Astros' implied total is more than a full run higher than anyone else on the slate, and Tyler White makes a nice cheap way to get exposure to that upside.

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.

Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.

Tyler White, 1B, Houston Astros ($2,300)

A few recent duds from Tyler White should not deter you here. He's still a dude with a career .325 wOBA and .190 ISO. He's still a guy turning in a 36.4% hard-hit rate with only a 9.1% soft-hit rate in 2019. His walk rate is still on pace to be a career-high at 13.8%. And he has still cracked southpaws for a .360 wOBA and .239 ISO over his young career.

He continues to offer huge fantasy appeal when he's priced this close to the minimum against a lefty, and that's especially true when the lefty is Detroit's Gregory Soto.

Considering he only managed a 4.49 xFIP in more than 100 High-A innings last year, it's no surprise that Soto's major league debut did not go well -- he was shelled for seven earned runs in only four innings.

Jake Marisnick, OF, Houston Astros ($2,500)

Considering the Houston Astros are -360 favorites in a game that has a 10-run over/under on FanDuel Sportsbook, you're going to want plenty of exposure to this offense. You can certainly do it with the likes of George Springer and Alex Bregman, but as we've already seen with Tyler White, you don't need to break the bank to get some bats with big upside in this spot.

Marisnick is off to a terrific start to 2019, with a .383 wOBA and .266 ISO over 69 plate appearances.

That comes with an unsustainable .395 BABIP, but considering he's also sporting the highest hard-hit rate of his career (33.3%) and has cut both his swinging-strike rate and strikeout rate down about 4% from where they were last year, it also looks like there's some substance to these improvements.

He's been far more productive against southpaws over his career, with a not-egregious .305 wOBA and a .170 ISO compared to a .275 wOBA and .143 ISO against righties, so this matchup with Soto makes him especially appealing tonight.

Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers ($2,800)

Another offense that's worth a long look tonight, the Texas Rangers show a 4.96-run implied total against righty Jorge Lopez and the Kansas City Royals.

Lopez has opened 2019 with a 4.65 SIERA after posting 4.84 in 2018, and his career average sits at 4.72 in the majors. He's been tagged for a lifetime 40.6% hard-hit rate, and that leaves tons of room for upside from the powerful Rangers bats.

Mazara has only managed a .306 wOBA over 147 plate appearances in 2019, but he's still flexed some power with a .184 ISO and a huge 45.4% hard-hit rate. He's no stranger to doing damage to right-handed pitching, either, with a career .331 wOBA and .182 ISO over four major league seasons.

Ji-Man Choi, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,800)

Ji-Man Choi's production is down this season, with a .339 wOBA and .159 ISO compared to a .367 wOBA and .242 ISO in 2018. He's still making terrific contact, though, with a 36.5% hard-hit rate and 12.9% soft-hit rate, and he gets a boost with the platoon advantage tonight.

His wOBA jumps to .352 against right-handed pitching this year, and in 443 career plate appearances, he has notched a .347 wOBA and .225 ISO on a 37.7% hard-hit rate against righties.

Jose Urena has struggled to the tune of a 4.75 SIERA through eight games this season, and while 2018 saw him notch a career-best SIERA, it was still a middling 4.39 mark. He gave up a then career-high 38.2% hard-hit rate in 2018, and that's up to 43.5% so far this season, leaving plenty of room for Choi to show off his righty-bashing power.

Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers ($2,900)

Philadelphia Phillies righty Jake Arrieta has an encouraging 3.78 ERA on the season, but that comes with only a 4.58 SIERA, while he's giving up hard contact at a rate over 10% higher than he did last year.

His pitch velocity is down from where it was last year, and he's been tagged by hitters for a 90.2 mile-per-hour average exit velocity, which is way up from his marks of 87.2 and 87.3 in the last two seasons.

Ryan Braun isn't showing anything special from the dish this year, but his numbers are consistent with what he's posted over the last two seasons -- a .340 wOBA and .241 ISO. He's sporting the highest hard-hit rate of his career (44.6%) with a 35.0% fly-ball rate, and that power leaves him boasting solid upside on a nightly basis.

Same-sided matchups haven't slowed him down too much, either, with a .331 wOBA and .200 ISO since 2017, so we can expect that power to hold up against Arrieta here.

Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.