5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 5/14/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Tyler White, 1B, Houston Astros ($2,300)
The Houston Astros' 5.98-run implied total is 0.66 runs higher than any other team offers tonight. That's not a huge surprise, considering their offensive prowess and their dreamy matchup against Detroit Tigers southpaw Ryan Carpenter.
The fact that we can still get super cheap exposure to their lineup is easy to like. When it's a Coors Field team pushing a six-run implied total, you're hard-pressed to find any bats below $3,000, but the Astros' value sticks are still sitting with their usual near-minimum salaries on Tuesday.
As I've mentioned over and over this season, Tyler White can really mash southpaws. His 2019 production has been underwhelming, with a .300 wOBA and .058 ISO, but that's over just 82 plate appearances. He has a career .328 wOBA and .192 ISO, and those marks jump to a .365 wOBA and .243 ISO on a 37.2% hard-hit rate and 43.4% fly-ball rate in 214 plate appearances against lefties.
That is not $2,300-type power, and his upside is especially high with how much scoring and production will likely be going on around him in the lineup tonight.
Jake Marisnick, OF, Houston Astros ($2,200)
Carpenter has only seven major league games under his belt, but he's struggled to the tune of an ugly 4.88 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in that time. His six Triple-A starts in 2019 were also pretty bad as he managed a 5.42 xFIP in that sample.
So while Jake Marisnick might not always be the most exciting bat in the world, this is the kind of matchup he can do damage in -- especially since he gets the platoon advantage.
We should not expect his huge .383 wOBA to hold up for long -- it's come over only 69 plate appearances, and he's doing it with a .395 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). We have seen him succeed against southpaws over a much bigger sample, however, with a .332 wOBA and .182 ISO in 245 plate appearances since 2017, and he's cheap enough that those numbers are really appealing against Carpenter.
Travis Shaw, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers ($2,200)
Editor's note: Since publication, Shaw has been placed on the injured list.
Speaking of unsustainable BABIP, Travis Shaw is on the other side of the equation, with a career-low .222 BABIP in 2019, compared to a career average of .282. He's also managed just a 10.3% homer-to-fly-ball rate, which is tied for a career-low clip and falls well below his 18.3% mark from last year and 16.2% career average.
Those struggles are despite the fact that his 37.6% hard-hit rate is on pace to be the second-highest of his career, and it is paired with a strong 46.4% fly-ball rate.
From 2017 to 2018, he turned in a .373 wOBA and .266 ISO on a 41.4% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching, so even though Philadelphia Phillies righty Jerad Eickhoff has a respectable 3.96 SIERA on the year, the matchup shouldn't scare you off of Shaw's upside.
Jarrod Dyson, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks ($2,800)
Yesterday I opened this column up with a look at Dyson and the value he gets from batting leadoff and stealing bases. He came through in a big way on Monday with two steals, marking the third time he's swiped two bags in a game this season and giving him his sixth game with at least 20 FanDuel points.
He's up to nine steals in 32 games this year, which is the most he's notched per game since 2015. That puts him on pace to notch at least 26 steals for the seventh time in the last eight years.
Just about everything that put him in play last night holds true today. His .349 wOBA on the season is a solid mark, and he's got the platoon advantage in this one, which is especially beneficial thanks to his double-digit walk rate against righties over the last two seasons.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have another solid implied total (4.88 runs), and Pittsburgh Pirates righty Joe Musgrove has an uninspiring 4.46 SIERA on the year while his 8.1% walk rate is on pace to be a career high.
Ryan O'Hearn, 1B, Kansas City Royals ($2,900)
Injuries limited Miller to only nine starts over the 2017 and 2018 seasons, but even his last full year was terrible, when he turned in a 5.13 SIERA in 2016. This season has managed to be even worse for him, and his 13.9% strikeout rate doesn't even eclipse his 15.3% walk rate. His SIERA is also absolutely egregious, at 6.45.
Ryan O'Hearn has no trouble beating up on right-handed pitching. Across his first two major league seasons (240 plate appearances in the split), he has turned a 45.8% hard-hit rate and 43.8% fly-ball rate into a .397 wOBA and .304 ISO against righties. He has no shortage of power upside tonight, and while he's on the more expensive end of the value range, he's still a terrific play.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.