5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 5/8/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Mark Reynolds, 1B, Colorado Rockies ($3,000)
The Colorado Rockies offense couldn't get much going last night, but they're at home against with another solid matchup tonight. The San Francisco Giants will start southpaw Derek Holland, and the Rockies' 5.20 implied total is the second-highest on the slate.
Even showing some signs of improvement this season, Holland still only has a middling 4.07 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). The kind of contact he's allowing is also a huge concern at Coors Field, where he'll be pitching tonight, as he's giving up a 41.6% hard-hit rate and 44.4% fly-ball rate.
Reynolds isn't producing well in 2019, with a .300 wOBA, but that comes in part because his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is sitting at only .235, which is well below both last year's mark of .288 and his career average of .304. He's still making great contact, though, with both a hard-hit rate and fly-ball rate of 37.8%.
Adding in the platoon advantage, a split in which he notched a .373 wOBA last season, and Reynolds offers some huge upside while being one of the few cheap ways to get exposure to the Rockies' batting order.
Josh Reddick, OF, Houston Astros ($3,000)
Reddick is having a strong season so far, sporting a .361 wOBA over 117 plate appearances. He has an inflated .355 BABIP, but there's room for regression to hit and still leave him with viable production.
Regression is especially unconcerning when he's up against a right-handed pitcher, as he's posted a wOBA north of .350 with the platoon advantage in three of his last four seasons, so this year's .361 in that split should be safe.
He draws a great matchup tonight, as well, taking on Kansas City Royals righty Jorge Lopez. Lopez posted a 4.84 SIERA in his first full major league season last year, and this year's 4.47 isn't much of a step up, bringing his career average to 4.65. Left-handed hitters have rocked him for a .356 wOBA and 4.73 xFIP on a 39.2% hard-hit rate, and he's not a threat to slow Reddick down here.
Marwin Gonzalez, 3B, Minnesota Twins ($2,400)
Back on the other side of BABIP variance, Gonzalez' .268 this season sits well below his .308 career average, even though he's on pace for a career-high 41.1% hard-hit rate and a 16.4% soft-hit rate that would be the second lowest of his career.
Tonight's matchup is a good spot for his production to right itself a bit, as he takes on Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Trent Thornton, who has only managed a 4.14 SIERA through seven starts in his first major league season. He's also giving up a 41.3% hard-hit rate, so we can expect Gonzalez to keep making great contact here, especially since the switch-hitter has slightly better career numbers against right-handed pitching.
Our models are also high on Gonzalez tonight, projecting him as the slate's third-best point-per-dollar value.
Garrett Hampson, 2B, Colorado Rockies ($2,500)
Hampson makes for an even cheaper way to get exposure to the Rockies' high implied total and plus-matchup at Coors.
Hampson has not looked good from the dish in the majors, with a .258 wOBA and .095 ISO over 139 plate appearances. He's getting the ball into the air with a reasonable 34.1% fly-ball rate. though, and considering his success at the Triple-A level (.371 wOBA in 332 plate appearances last year), there's plenty of room for optimism that he's going to pick things up.
He's got the platoon advantage and a good matchup tonight, so he's in a good spot to increase his production, and simply being a $2,500 bat in the Rockies' lineup gives him plenty of fantasy appeal.
Jackie Bradley, OF, Boston Red Sox ($2,300)
As we've experienced often this season, Jackie Bradley tends to be a boom-or-bust value play, but he's also one of the cheapest sources of "boom" you're going to find on a lot of slates.
He's priced only $300 above the minimum, but he's hitting in a Boston Red Sox lineup that has the third-highest implied total on the slate. That comes from a dreamy matchup with Andrew Cashner, who hasn't posted a SIERA better than 4.70 since 2015, and an Orioles reliever group that owns the third-worst xFIP in the majors.
Bradley also gets the platoon advantage against the right-handed Cashner tonight. He has tagged right-handed pitchers for a 38.9% hard-hit rate and 36.5% fly-ball rate in 1347 plate appearances since the start of the 2016 season, and while his wOBA sits at a modest (though serviceable) .333, his .196 ISO shows plenty of power upside.
Adding in the bump in potential for runs and RBI from such a potent offense, and Bradley has a terrific ceiling for a guy priced this low.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.