MLB
Alex Avila: Ready to Rebound
Alex Avila is on a quest to put up some of the best numbers of his career.

On August 7th, 2009, a fan favorite was born when FanGraph’s version of wins above replacement (fWAR), Avila's best two seasons in baseball were 2011 and 2012. He produced fWARs of 4.6 and 2.4, respectively, and looked like a solid MLB catcher for a team that consistently competed in the AL Central.

In 2013, his fWAR continued to decline though, dropping to 0.6. This decline caused Detroit faithful to jump ship and plead for the Tigers to make a move for a different catcher. While his defense has been one of the best - if not the best - when it comes to American League (AL) catchers, just like AL MVP voters, Tigers fans don't care about defense.

Avila has continued to struggle to get hits in 2014, but there's reason to believe this will improve, mostly because of one number that isn't sustainable: Avila's 35.1% strikeout rate. He's currently tied for last among players with at least 150 plate appearances with a 35.1% strikeout rate, making him worse than the infamous Jim Sannes' expected BABIP formula, which you can read about when he discussed five hitters who will improve and five hitters who will regress, Avila is bound for improvement in the BABIP department.

With a line-drive percentage (LD%) of 27.8%, Avila is looking at an increase in BABIP of almost 20 points to .338. An increase in batting average is clear and numberFire's projection system agrees with me. Avila's current average sits at .206, and numberFire projects him to hit .242 for the rest of the season. The numbers also predict increases in on-base percentage (.351) and weighted on-base average (.332) as well.

This offensive increase in these remaining months certainly will help him surpass that 2012 fWAR, but it’s his defense that has kept him in the positives so far in 2014.

Alex Avila currently sits atop the list of catchers when it comes to defensive stats, and with good reason. He has bounced back from a miserable 2013 season where he threw out only 17% of runners by throwing out 43% of runners so far this season. He’s on pace for just three passed balls and 18 wild pitches, both of which would be career lows even though he's on pace for the second most games played in a season.

The regular battery mate of stud pitchers like Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer has made a name for himself defensively this season. When you combine an eventual increase in offensive production with that, Avila is bound for the second-best season of his career in 2014.

Related News

MLB Betting Guide for Friday 8/11/23: The Wrong Team Is Favored at Fenway Park

Austin Swaim  --  Jun 2nd, 2014

3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/11/23

Thomas Vecchio  --  Jun 2nd, 2014

MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 8/10/23: 3 Unders on a Slate with Dodgy Weather

Austin Swaim  --  Jun 2nd, 2014