DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 9/26/18
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Jacob deGrom ($13,200 on DraftKings): Chris Sale has been on a pitch count since coming off the DL, and with the Boston Red Sox having everything locked up, there is no reason to stretch him out other than to prepare for the postseason. With that said, Jacob DeGrom is the top pitching play tonight, but it comes with a hefty price tag. He has been dominant this season, though, with a 32.0 percent strikeout rate, 0.94 WHIP and a 2.66 xFIP. He also has an elite 27.0 percent hard-hit rate and a slate-best 6.3 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate.
German Marquez ($10,200): Outside of Sale being an insane -400 favorite, German Marquez is next up at -205. His numbers have been great with a 27.2 percent strikeout rate, 1.22 WHIP And 3.20 xFIP. Considering half of his games are pitched in Coors Field, that's not too bad at all. Tonight's game is in Colorado and they host the Philadelphia Phillies, which is great for Marquez as the Phillies strike out at a 24.8 percent clip, the third-highest in the Majors. Marquez has elite upside, as he has picked up 11-plus strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 games.
Low-Priced Pitcher
Andrew Heaney ($8,000): This isn't digging too far down the bargain bin, but the left-handed Heaney brings some nice upside into a matchup with the Texas Rangers. He enters tonight's game sporting a 3.74 xFIP that outshines his 4.21 ERA, and brings along with it a respectable 23.6 percent strikeout rate and 11.6 percent swinging-strike rate. In fact, dating back to July 27, Heaney has managed five or more strikeouts in all but one outing (in which he whiffed four). To make things look even better, the Rangers come in with the Majors' 24th-best wOBA (.296) over the past 30 days, and they strike out at a top-eight rate (22.9 percent) against left-handed pitching this season.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Mookie Betts ($6,100): Mookie Betts is about as good as it gets in the MLB, and he's even better when you isolate his numbers against just right-handed pitching. He has an elite .434 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and .273 isolated power (ISO) against righties, and gets a premium matchup this evening against the Baltimore Orioles' Yefry Ramirez. The Red Sox have a 5.17 implied run total, which is tied for the second-highest on the slate, and given Ramirez' numbers, they could far exceed that. He has a 1.55 WHIP and a 5.13 xFIP with a brutal 43.8 percent fly-ball rate, and although his 12.2 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate isn't terrible, it's not very good either.
Khristopher Davis ($5,100): Boy, did the Oakland Athletics fly up the standings over the last few months! They have locked up a Wild Card spot and will face the New York Yankees in the Wild Card game. Tonight, though, they take on the Seattle Mariners, who will have struggling veteran Felix Hernandez on the mound. Khris Davis has destroyed right-handed pitching this season, bringing an elite .377 wOBA and an absurdly powerful .316 ISO. Hernandez has struggled with the long-ball, with a 38.5 percent hard-hit rate and 88.9 mile-per-hour average exit velocity, which have resulted in a 15.9 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate.
David Dahl ($4,800): David Dahl is pretty cheap relative to his teammates, considering how well he has done against right-handed pitching in 2018. He leads the team with a .378 wOBA and has an equally impressive .267 ISO. The Rockies have an insane, slate-leading 6.06 implied run total as they take on Nick Pivetta. He actually has some solid pitching numbers, with a 27.5 percent strikeout rate and 3.37 xFIP, but his home-run-to-fly-ball rate of 15.5 percent is pretty troublesome in this environment. Dahl has been much better at home, too, averaging 8.4 DraftKings points (DKpts) per game in Colorado and just 4.8 DKpts on the road.
Value Hitters
Tommy Pham ($4,500): Tommy Pham has been pretty solid for the Tampa Bay Rays, and his .342 wOBA and .184 ISO against right-handed pitching will come in handy tonight. Additionally, he has been on an absolute tear of late. Over his last 10 games, Pham has put up an elite .395 AVG, a 1.268 OPS, with three home runs and seven RBI. He's taking on Masahiro Tanaka, who's been solid with a 1.11 WHIP and 3.40 xFIP, but it is the 37.9 percent hard-hit rate and 33.2 percent fly-ball rate that lead to a slate-worst 17.5 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate and make him worth targeting with hitters.
Daniel Palka ($4,400): Until diving into it last week, I did not realize the power that Daniel Palka had against right-handed pitchers. He has a good-not-great .347 wOBA but a very powerful .284 ISO against righties, and with Shane Bieber on the mound for the Cleveland Indians, that power could be a factor. Bieber has a 1.37 WHIP, but his slate-worst 44.7 percent hard-hit rate -- along with a 22.4 percent line-drive rate -- is going to get him in to a lot of trouble. When you add in his 89.7 mile-per-hour average exit velocity you realize Palka is in a great spot.
Mike Moustakas ($4,300): Mike "The Moose" Moustakas has been pretty solid against right-handed pitching historically and has continued to look solid in that split this season. He has a .342 wOBA and .237 ISO against righties in 2018. His matchup against St. Louis Cardinals righty John Gant is solid, especially considering Gant has a lowly 19.9 percent strikeout rate. He also has a modest 1.29 WHIP and a pretty bad 4.62 xFIP. He has the second-worst hard-hit rate, at 44.5 percent, and an 88.0 mile-per-hour average exit velocity doesn't bode well against a hard-hitter like Moustakas.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
