DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 9/5/18
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
Zack Wheeler ($10,400 on DraftKings): While many will flock to Luis Severino because he's been pitching better lately, Severino deals with a very tough matchup tonight. Instead we'll look at Zack Wheeler, who has been great, especially as of late. Over his last 10 games he has averaged 24.2 DraftKings points per game, including posting at least 27 in half of those games and at least 7 strikeouts in 7 of them. On the season, Wheeler has a solid 24.0 percent strikeout rate, 1.19 WHIP and 3.74 xFIP which are all solid.
Michael Kopech ($9,000): Be sure to check out the weather on this game as we get closer to lock as there is some potential rain issues. This seems to be a recurring issue with Michael Kopech as he's been taken out early in two of his three starts due to rain. However, when he is in the game he has been decent with a 1.09 WHIP and although his 18.8 percent strikeout rate in the Majors isn't great, had an elite 31.3 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A throughout the season. He's taking on a Detroit Tigers team that has a 22.6 percent strikeout rate, which is the 10th-highest in the Majors.
Framber Valdez ($7,100): He has just 14.1 innings in the Majors, but Framber Valdez has looked great. He has a 0.91 WHIP, 13.2 percent hard-hit rate and limited his Statcast numbers to just an 81.3 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 82-foot average batted-ball distance. Obviously, the sample size is very small, and his 17.2 strikeout rate in the Majors is not as good as his 25.0 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A ball this season. The Houston Astros are -199 favourites which is the second-largest on the slate, which is also encouraging.
Hitters to Target
Shohei Ohtani ($5,400): Among all hitters with at least 50 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Shohei Ohtani has the sixth-best weighted on-base average (wOBA) with a .428 mark. Additionally, he brings plenty of power against righties with an elite .333 isolated power (ISO). Ohtani has an elite matchup against the aging Bartolo Colon who has a 1.30 WHIP and 4.66 xFIP. Additionally, he has a 43.6 percent hard-hit rate and 35.3 percent fly-ball rate which has led to a brutal 16.8 percent home run to fly-ball rate.
Nolan Arenado ($5,200): Coors Field may have some weather issues tonight as well so keep an eye on that as we get closer to lock. Nolan Arenado has as great as a matchup as one can have. As mentioned, he's going to be hitting in Coors Field and is taking on San Francisco Giants left-hander Andrew Suarez. Against lefties in 2018, Arenado has an insane .513 wOBA and .401 ISO — just absurd numbers. He gets a solid pitching matchup too against Suarez who struggles with a 40.4 percent hard-hit rate and 16.7 percent home run to fly-ball rate, which doesn't tend to go over well in Coors against a power bat like Arenado.
Gregory Polanco ($5,200): Gregory Polanco has been solid as of late, hitting for a .333 average with a 1.022 OPS along with 3 home runs, 10 RBI and 3 stolen bases over his last 10 games. He's got a fantastic matchup tonight against Cincinnati Reds' Homer Bailey — a pitcher that has struggled this season. Bailey has a slate-worst 1.65 WHIP along with an ugly 4.73 xFIP. Additionally, he has a 42.1 percent hard-hit rate, 24.4 percent line-drive rate and a 19.0 percent home run to fly-ball rate. Polanco has been solid against righties with a .363 wOBA and .269 ISO on the season.
Daniel Palka ($4,200): He is not necessarily the most reliable hitter, but he does bring some power against right-handed pitching. Daniel Palka has a .327 wOBA against righties, which isn't great, but his .265 ISO is certainly solid. Tonight he's got a matchup against Detroit Tigers' Jordan Zimmermann, who has had some deep fly-ball tendencies this season. He's got a 42.9 percent fly-ball rate and a slate-worst 196-foot average batted-ball distance, which has led to a 14.6 percent home run to fly-ball rate.
Tyler White ($4,000): With 3 home runs and 11 RBI in his last 10 games, Tyler White remains underpriced. That doesn't even factor in the fact that White crushes right-handed pitching (with a .401 wOBA and .302 ISO) and takes on the Minnesota Twins' Jake Odorizzi this evening. Odorizzi hasn't been very good this season, with a 1.35 WHIP and a 4.70 xFIP, but those aren't even his most troubling numbers. He has a 23.9 percent line-drive rate and a slate-worst 47.8 percent fly-ball rate. While he hasn't been giving up that many home runs, his 204-foot average batted-ball distance could catch up with him soon.
Andrew McCutchen ($3,900): He is a shell of his former self, but it still feels way too cheap for Andrew McCutchen, especially when you consider all the hitters in the lineup around him. His numbers against right-handed pitching do leave a lot to be desired in 2018 with a .330 wOBA and .146 ISO, however his matchup is solid against Oakland's Mike Fiers. This should help counter McCutchen's struggles. Fiers has a 38.3 percent hard-hit rate, 42.8 percent fly-ball rate and 89.1 mile-per-hour average exit velocity, which has led to a 13.4 percent home run to fly-ball rate.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.