DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 9/4/18
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Justin Verlander ($12,300 on DraftKings): Justin Verlander is the most expensive pitcher on the slate and leads the way in a bunch of categories. These include -- but are not limited to -- a 33.7 percent strikeout rate, 0.95 WHIP and 3.19 xFIP. He's an absolute beast, and he and the Houston Astros are -305 favorites, which is the largest on the slate. He's taking on a Minnesota Twins team that doesn't really strike out much (doing so at just a 21.7 percent clip against right-handed pitching), but with Verlander's strikeout ability he can manufacture K's at an elite rate.
German Marquez ($9,300): Starting a pitcher in Coors Field is typically a recipe for disaster. However, German Marquez has not only been dominant this season, but he has been decent at Coors Field, especially in recent games. He has 25-plus DraftKings points (DKpts) in 3 of his last 4 Coors starts and 20-plus DKpts in all 4. He has an elite matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who have a 24.0 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, which is the 6th-worst in the Majors. Additionally, the Colorado Rockies are -187 favorites, the 5th-largest on the slate.
Low-Priced Pitchers
Lucas Giolito ($6,300): Some of Giolito's numbers are abysmal, including his 1.41 WHIP and 5.47 xFIP, and his 16.7 percent strikeout rate is not very encouraging either. However, Giolito is showing signs of improvement as of late, putting up 19-plus DKpts in 5 of his last 6 starts including at least 6 strikeouts in each of them. He has a solid matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who have a 22.5 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching -- the 11th-worst in the Majors. The Tigers also struggle to generate offense against righties, with a .290 team weighted on-base average (wOBA) that ranks 29th and a 79 wRC+ that ranks 29th in the Majors.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Javier Baez ($5,800): Javier Baez has been on a tear as of late. Over his last 10 games, he is hitting for a .341 average, with 3 home runs and 7 RBI while averaging 10.9 DKpts per game. He has been pretty splits-neutral this season, but he has been slightly better against left-handed pitching, with a .394 wOBA and .281 isolated power (ISO). Tonight, he's taking on the Milwaukee Brewers' Wade Miley who has an ugly 41.0 percent hard-hit rate, 23.7 percent line-drive rate and 4.39 xFIP.
Jesus Aguilar ($5,200): On the other side of the matchup, we have Jesus Aguilar against Chicago Cubs lefty Mike Montgomery. Montgomery doesn't have the greatest numbers, with a 1.37 WHIP, 4.37 xFIP and a 20.8 percent line-drive rate. Additionally, he struggles to generate strikeouts, as evidenced by a 15.1 percent strikeout rate. Aguilar has struggled as of late, hitting for just a .195 AVG over his last 10 games, but his previous success against left-handed pitchers -- .378 wOBA and .272 ISO -- this season leads us to believe he could turn things around.
David Dahl ($4,900): We already touched on Coors Field a bit with Marquez being in play on the mound, but the hitters on the Colorado Rockies are also in play, and we need them to go nuts to get Marquez the win. David Dahl has been fantastic against right-handed pitching this season, with an elite .376 wOBA and .248 ISO, which shows the power that he possesses. It is an interesting matchup against the Giants' Dereck Rodriguez, who does have a sparkling 1.04 WHIP but a brutal 41.3 percent hard-hit rate and 24.9 percent line-drive rate. Target the latter in your Marquez-Dahl pairings.
Value Hitters
Rhys Hoskins ($4,300): Rhys Hoskins has had much more success against right-handed pitching compared to left-handed pitching in 2018. He's smashed righties to the tune of a .373 wOBA and a .272 ISO. He's got an elite matchup against the Miami Marlins' Trevor Richards, a pitcher that hasn't been great this season. He has a modest 1.39 WHIP and 4.33 xFIP, but his 41.1 percent hard-hit rate, 26.3 percent line-drive rate and 38.4 percent fly-ball rate are all worth targeting.
A.J. Pollock ($4,100): You want to talk about a hitter in a massive slump, look no further than A.J. Pollock. He has an ugly .088 AVG over his last 10 games, which helps explain his very low price tag. Although his .309 wOBA against left-handed pitching is also quite poor, he still brings a .241 ISO to the plate. He'll be taking on the San Diego Padres' Joey Lucchesi, who has a very good 3.53 xFIP. But there are other numbers that are concerning, in the form of a 39.0 percent hard-hit rate, 22.5 line-drive rate, and a horrific 18.2 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate -- numbers that can hopefully play into Pollock's power.
Franmil Reyes ($3,500): This seems very much like chasing points, considering Franmil Reyes hit two home runs last night. But his numbers against left-handed pitching definitely warrant the consideration. Among hitters with at least 50 plate appearances, Reyes ranks 6th with an incredible .466 wOBA and brings along an equally elite .370 ISO. He's taking on the disappointing Robbie Ray, who despite having a good 3.89 xFIP, has some concerning peripheral marks. He has a horrendous 43.0 percent hard-hit rate and 40.4 percent fly-ball rate, which have led to an abysmal 18.2 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. You could do worse than Reyes in this lowly price range.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
