MLB Betting Guide: Monday 8/27/18
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Angels +1.5 (-127): 4-Star Rating out of 5
Losers of six straight, the Los Angeles Angels will play host to the surging Colorado Rockies on Monday night. The two teams split their short, two-game series earlier this season at Coors Field, but the Rockies' win was a rarity in their recent meetings.
The two teams have played six times since 2015, with the Angels taking home five of the wins. They'll send out Odrisamer Despaigne tonight to try and make it six out of seven, while Colorado will counter with Jon Gray.
Gray has been pitching better of late. Six out of his last seven appearances have been quality starts, but road games have still proven to be his kryptonite this season, which is ironic considering where his team plays its home games. Since May 19, Gray has given up at least three runs in all but one away start. In those games, Rockies' opponents have scored an average of 6.0 runs per game, compared to just 3.3 when Gray has pitched at home in that time frame.
While our models don't see the Angels putting up a six-spot, we have them outscoring the Rockies by an average of 0.62 runs this evening. We given them a 70.08% chance of covering the runline. With an expected return of 25.30%, we have this marked as the only four-star play of the slate.
Under 10.5 (-105): 3-Star Rating out of 5
The New York Mets aren't exactly a team one pictures when thinking of a high-scoring game in baseball. Indeed, they are averaging just 4.16 runs per game this season, the eighth-lowest average in the Major Leagues.
As such, it is somewhat perplexing when they are in a game with a total set in double-digits, as is the case for tonight's contest with the Chicago Cubs. The Mets have played 130 games this season. Of those, only 5 have seen a total of 10 or higher.
The over is, remarkably, 2-2 in the two teams' meetings this season, even though they have combined for an average of just 6.75 runs per game. Three of the four games have seen eight runs or fewer scored.
The under is 13-12-1 during the Mets' August games, but only five of their games have seen more than 10 combined runs. New York is averaging 5.0 runs per game this month, but take out the 40 runs they scored across just 2 games on August 15 and 16, and that number drops to just 3.75.
Our models have the two teams combining for 9.03 runs this evening. We give the under a 63.98% chance of hitting, and mark this bet as a strong three-star play.
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