DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 8/7/18
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on DraftKings' main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
Carlos Carrasco ($11,500 on DraftKings): Just six days ago, Carlos Carrasco went 7.1 innings, striking out 10 and allowing just 4 hits in a road win over the Minnesota Twins. His 38.1 DraftKings points marks his highest since June 11. And lucky him, he draws those same Twins tonight. They enter Tuesday's matchup after being shut out in a 10-0 loss that saw Trevor Bauer notch 11 strikeouts in 6 strong. But that's nothing new for Minnesota. So far this year, their offense ranks 14th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, but it's down to 17th since trading Brian Dozier (not to mention Eduardo Escobar), and that comes with the league's third-highest strikeout rate (29.0%) against righties. Carrasco's the biggest favorite (-240 moneyline) on the board, and he comes in with the potential for double-digit strikeouts once again.
Zack Greinke ($10,100): If you want to take a step down in salary from Carrasco to Greinke, who can blame you? The veteran righty is averaging 0.6 more DraftKings points per game and draws what has proven to be a more exploitable Philadelphia Phillies offense. Against righties this year, their .312 wOBA is in the middle of the road (17th), but their 25.8% strikeout rate is second-worst only to the San Diego Padres (25.9%). Even if Greinke gives up a run or two, the strikeout upside should help cover that, especially at home, where he owns a higher strikeout rate (26.6% to 25.3%) and a lower xFIP (3.14 to 3.29). Sure, he might go overlooked for Carrasco and/or Max Scherzer ($13,900), but having nearly $3,000 to spend on bats makes a lot of sense on a Coors Field slate.
Chase Anderson ($7,800): Anderson isn't the most impressive pitcher for DFS purposes. He's averaging just 13.9 DraftKings points on the season while coming in with a poor 4.78 xFIP and mediocre 19.7% strikeout rate. But in case you didn't catch the tidbit above, let me remind you: the Padres are bad. They are dead last in wOBA (.290) and second-to-last in wRC+ (83), and those figures only go down while their league-worst strikeout rate goes up when squaring off against right-handed pitching. And if Anderson didn't have enough in his favor already, he's at home. Yes, his own numbers have been worse in the hitter-friendly confines of Miller Park, but the Padres are the second-worst road offense in baseball, and when you slim down the sample to righty pitchers on the road, they strike out 26.4% of the time with the Majors' lowest walk rate (6.3%). Hope for a six-inning showing from Anderson -- like he's done in back-to-back games -- and one that should result in a win if Vegas (-188 moneyline) knows what it's doing.
Hitters to Target
Gregory Polanco ($5,700): If you're going to get in on tonight's scrumptious 11-run over/under in Denver, look no further than the Pittsburgh Pirates' Gregory Polanco. With career highs basically across the board this year, Polanco's priced this high for a few reasons. One of those is the Colorado Rockies' Chad Bettis. In giving up a 4.56 xFIP overall, Bettis has allowed opponents to produce a .414 wOBA with just a 17.2% strikeout rate at home. He doesn't have severe splits against lefties, but Polanco should still take advantage as he's entering tonight's game with .274 ISO and 52.5% fly-ball rate against right-handed pitching.
Rougned Odor ($5,400): Tuesday's matchup between the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners also boasts a 11-run total. The Rangers, who come in with an implied 5.44 runs, face off with Felix Hernandez, who has been anything but the "King" this season. The 32-year-old righty has a career-worst 4.59 xFIP, including a 4.56 xFIP and 40.0% fly-ball rate to lefty bats. Odor, who carries a .212 ISO, 44.3% hard-hit rate and 43.6% fly-ball rate against righty hurlers, figures to keep his hot streak going. He has 6 home runs, 13 RBIs and a 61.1% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks of play.
Aaron Hicks ($4,700): No Aaron Judge, no problem... at least for Hicks. Since Judge went down on July 26, the switch-hitting Hicks has two dingers, with a .449 wOBA, .212 ISO and 26.1% walk rate. On the year, he's up to a .360 wOBA and .228 ISO. He'll take those numbers into a meeting with righty Reynaldo Lopez, who's been hammered to the tune of a 5.67 xFIP and 47.5% fly-ball rate, with most of that damage -- a 6.19 xFIP and 51.5% fly-ball rate -- coming against lefties.
Kyle Schwarber ($4,200): After watching his price jump to $4,400 on Monday, we get Schwarber at more of a reasonable price following back-to-back 0-for nights. We should expect a bounce-back here, though. He and the Chicago Cubs are doing battle against the Kansas City Royals' Brad Keller, whose 4.67 SIERA more accurately depicts his performance than does his 3.39 ERA. More than anything, the righty's numbers against lefties -- 4.91 xFIP, 16.1% strikeout rate and 16.1% walk rate -- put Schwarber in play. After all, the slugger's got a .278 ISO and 39.9% fly-ball rate against righties in 2018.
Teoscar Hernandez ($4,200): The young Toronto Blue Jays' outfielder has enjoyed a nice season, with 16 dingers, 41 RBIs and a .242 ISO. However, Hernandez has had an even better year versus lefties, against whom he has 8 home runs, 15 RBIs and a .291 ISO in 126 plate appearances. So he should be salivating at the thought of stepping in against the struggling Drew Pomeranz. Through 10 starts, Pomeranz has failed to get back to his 2017 form, holding a 5.26 xFIP with a hard-hit rate (38.1%) nearly double his strikeout rate (19.6%). Righties have produced a 39.2% hard-hit rate for a .406 wOBA and 9 home runs against him.
Ryon Healy ($3,900): If you're looking for a righty-righty matchup for tournaments, Healy (or even Nelson Cruz at a higher price) against Bartolo Colon is the one to ride tonight. On the year, Colon possesses a 42.3% hard-hit rate, 34.7% fly-ball rate and 13.6% strikeout rate. His 4.37 xFIP against righties is held down by a .262 BABIP, and it shouldn't be long before his 35.8% fly-ball rate and 43.7% hard-hit rate catch up with him. Healy enters with a 39.7% fly-ball rate, 36.4% hard-hit rate and .210 ISO absent the platoon advantage.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.