3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/13/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Using the odds available at Bovada Sportsbook, here are three prop bets available tonight that are good plays based on our daily MLB game projections.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
Carlos Martinez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Carlos Martinez had a rough month of June, but he has settled in some and is holding hitters to a .255 wOBA through two July starts. On Friday, his matchup with the Cincinnati Reds won't be easy, but our models think Martinez could be a candidate to rack up six or more strikeouts.
Martinez sports a 19.8% strikeout rate at home this season, but across his last three home starts that jumps to 25.7%. Plus, even though Martinez was roughed up some in his last start against Cincinnati, across three starts against the Reds this season, Martinez owns a 31.1% strikeout rate. Our models project him for 6.47 punchouts on Friday.
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies
Nolan Arenado OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-150)
The run total for the Seattle Mariners and Colorado Rockies is 12.5 on Friday at Coors Field, and with the Rockies hitting against Christian Bergman, Nolan Arenado could be a strong prop play.
With -150 odds on the over, Bovada feels that way, too. For his career against right-handed hitters, Bergman has allowed them to post a .406 wOBA over 531 plate appearances. Considering this, our models are projecting Arenado for 3.29 combined runs, hits, and RBI.
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
Walker Buehler OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Walker Buehler is making his return from the disabled list on Friday night in a crosstown matchup with the Los Angeles Angels. While there is a slight chance that his pitch count is monitored, our models think the rookie right-hander could be a strong prop bet if the Los Angeles Dodgers cut him loose.
Buehler has a 26.1% strikeout rate at home, and before his last start that landed him on the disabled list, Buehler was sporting a 28.2% strikeout rate at Dodger Stadium. Even though the Angels don't go down swinging much, our models are projecting Buehler for 6.51 strikeouts.