3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/12/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Manny Machado UNDER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-130)
Manny Machado got Monday night off for the Baltimore Orioles, and after opening the month of June hitting 6-for-28 (.214), his matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez is one you can fade with pretty good confidence.
Not only has Machado opened the month slower at the plate, he is only 6-for-31 (.194) lifetime against Rodriguez. Machado has only two extra base hits and five strikeouts versus E-Rod, and for Tuesday our models are projecting the O's third baseman for 2.02 combined runs, hits, and RBI.
Scott Schebler Will Have MORE Runs, Hits, and RBI Than Jorge Soler (-105)
Our models have keyed in on some of the Cincinnati Reds in their matchup with Ian Kennedy tonight, and Scott Schebler is getting most of the love. With Schebler matched up with Jorge Soler (-125) from the Kansas City Royals, our models think the underdog, Schebler, is the real value.
Schebler has shown a lot of power against righties this season, with a .208 isolated power and a .341 wOBA across 136 plate appearances. Soler, on the other hand, sees his stats drop considerably against righties, with a .329 wOBA and .164 isolated power. For Tuesday, our models project Soler for 2.15 runs, hits, and RBI, compared to 3.16 for Schebler.
Michael Brantley OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-120)
Another hitter our models project as a good fantasy and prop value on Tuesday is Michael Brantley. The Cleveland Indians' outfielder is only 8-for-37 (.216) in the month of June, but his matchup against James Shields could be a good one.
Brantley owns a .400 wOBA and .240 isolated power against right-handed pitching this season, and he has a run, hit, or RBI every 1.67 plate appearances against righties. Against Shields and the Chicago White Sox, our models project Brantley for 3.37 runs, hits, and RBI.