3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/11/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Andrew Benintendi OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (+120)
Andrew Benintendi is just one of several Boston Red Sox's bats our models have keyed in on as potential prop and DFS values. Considering Benintendi already has 4 doubles, 4 home runs, 6 RBIs, and 10 runs scored over his 42 plate appearances in June, he could be a solid value against right-hander Dylan Bundy.
Benintendi has a .405 wOBA and .257 isolated power versus right-handed pitching this season, and he owns a run, hit, or RBI in every 1.65 plate appearances against righties. For Monday, our models like Benintendi for 2.96 runs, hits, and RBIs against the Baltimore Orioles.
Mitch Moreland Will Have MORE Runs, Hits, and RBI Than Adam Jones (-125)
Speaking of left-handers who beat up right-handed pitching, Mitch Moreland is also in that boat. He's up against Adam Jones in a runs, hits, and RBIs prop from Bovada on Monday, and our models are leaning on Moreland's splits against right-handers over Jones' history against Steven Wright.
Jones is 4-for-16 (.250) lifetime against Wright, with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs. Moreland, on the other hand, has raked against righties this season with a .431 wOBA and .325 isolated power over 136 plate appearances. Our models are projecting Moreland for 2.91 runs, hits, and RBIs on Monday, compared to 2.36 for Jones.
Paul Goldschmidt UNDER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-130)
Usually, when Paul Goldschmidt is included in this article, it's because we like him to have a big night at the plate. However, with a Monday night matchup against Joe Musgrove, we think he could have a rougher outing.
While it's a tiny sample, Musgrove is limiting righties to a .282 wOBA over 49 total batters faced in 2018. This is more about Goldy, though, as his wOBA drops from .492 against lefties to .323 against right-handers.
Our models are projecting Goldschmidt to be held to 2.2 runs, hits, and RBIs on Monday in Arizona.