DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 6/11/18
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Carlos Carrasco ($10,700 on DraftKings): Cookie Carrasco takes the bump for the Cleveland Indians tonight, and he's priced near the top of the list for a good reason. On the season, he's got a strong 24.4% strikeout rate and 3.58 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), and he gets to take on a Chicago White Sox squad that has no problem swinging and missing as they rank 4th-worst with a 25.1 strikeout rate. Add that to an offense that ranks 26th in walk rate against righties, and Carrasco could be primed for a big night.
Madison Bumgarner ($10,400): The second high-tier pitching option to consider came down to Mad Bum -- who is making only his second start of 2018 -- and Patrick Corbin, who's the most expensive arm on the day at $11,200. Why the edge to Bumgarner? It boils down to opponent, and Bumgarner could have a slightly easier time against the Miami Marlins versus Corbin's matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Marlins rank 28th in team weighted on-base average (wOBA) against southpaws at .294 and have a 20.9% strikeout rate while the Pirates rank 9th (.329) in team wOBA against lefties with a 19.6% strikeout rate. Bumgarner posted a 12.2% swinging-strike rate in that first outing, so feel free to pay down a hair for the Giant lefty.
Low-Priced Pitcher
Jack Flaherty ($8,300): Now through seven starts in 2018, Flaherty has proven to be ready for a full-time rotation spot with a 26.1% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate over 39 1/3 innings pitched. His 3.58 xFIP has been solid this season, but his 41.1% hard-hit rate may give you a bit of a pause. Luckily, he will face a San Diego Padres team that double-dips in the bottom five in terms of strikeout rate (28th at 25.5%) and team wOBA (also 28th at .294). Take a peek at Flaherty as a strong SP2 option this evening.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Andrew Benintendi ($5,500): With Mookie Betts sidelined for the past few weeks, Benintendi has stepped into the leadoff spot over the last 14 contests, and he's in a juicy spot tonight against Dylan Bundy. Bundy has been terrorized by left-handed bats since the start of the 2017. Over 493 total batters faced, he's allowed a .341 wOBA, 38.6% hard-hit rate, and 47.9% fly-ball rate. Over the past three weeks, Benintendi has performed like a boss, racking up an absurd .400 ISO thanks to his 46.6% fly-ball rate. Bundy has been strong with a 14.5% swinging-strike rate this year, but look for lefties to continue to give him some trouble.
Francisco Lindor ($5,100): Very little has gone right for Chicago White Sox starter Lucas Giolito in 2018. Over 61 innings pitched, Giolito has been rocked for a 41.6% fly-ball rate, and he's allowed more walks (13.8%) than he has strikeouts (11.0%). Lefties have been particularly unkind to him, posting a .409 wOBA and 44.3% fly-ball rate, leading to a ghastly 7.56 xFIP. Enter the switch-hitting Lindor, who's been solid as a lefty in 2018 with a .358 wOBA, .264 ISO, and 42.6% hard-hit rate.
Jake Lamb ($4,100): When Lamb gets a matchup with a right-handed pitcher, he generally makes for a solid option, and he's one we want to pay up for tonight. Since the start of last season in this split, Lamb has posted a .378 wOBA, 38.9% hard-hit rate, and 40.6% fly-ball rate. Facing Joe Musgrove of the Pittsburgh Pirates, who has allowed a 41.4% hard-hit rate on the road against lefties in his career as an Astro and Pirate, Lamb could be in line for a big scoring day.
Value Hitters
Evan Longoria ($3,700): Death, taxes, and Longoria smashing southpaws. All three are guarantees, and with Wei-Yin Chen manning the hill for the Miami Marlins, Longoria is in a great spot. Over 281 plate appearances dating back to the start of the 2017 season, Longoria has popped lefty hurlers for a 40.6% hard-hit rate and .202 ISO. And while Chen is basically death to same-sided hitters, he's a bit more generous to righties. This season, over 126 total batters faced, Chen has allowed a .392 wOBA, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 6.84 xFIP. With Chen's strikeout rate against righties this year at just 11.9%, look for Longoria to make some noise.
Matt Carpenter ($3,300): After hitting only .155 through March and April over 103 plate appearances, season-long and DFS players were pretty frustrated with Carpenter, and for good reason. Not only did he carry a struggling batting average, but his .266 wOBA didn't make you think a turnaround was imminent. Sice the calendar turned to May, though, Carpenter has been a whole new hitter. Over his last 144 plate appearances, Carp sports a .382 wOBA, 10.4% walk rate, 56.5% hard-hit rate, and 52.2% fly-ball rate. Dial in Jordan Lyles and his 36.9% hard-hit rate and 38.0% fly-ball rate, and the St. Louis Cardinals' leadoff man could be in for a big evening.
Jonathan Schoop ($3,300): The Baltimore Orioles face knuckleballer Steven Wright tonight, and he's been brilliant so far this season. Spanning seven outings (six in relief), Wright has been unhittable with a 1.57 ERA and 18.2% hard-hit rate over 23 innings. Stay away, right? Maybe not. Wright has shown some warts this season, namely a 14.8% walk rate, and his 88.5% strand rate indicates that ERA may be a bit lucky. If we expand to look at Wright's numbers from the beginning of 2017, righties have popped him pretty good for a .384 wOBA and .559 slugging percentage over 140 total batters faced. Wright's 4.40 xFIP shows he may come back to the pack a bit in 2018, and Schoop gives us some cheap exposure to him.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
