3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/4/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Paul Goldschmidt OVER 2 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-125)
Paul Goldschmidt's epic slump in the month of May could be stretching into June, but on Monday, he has a prime matchup against a lefty. With Bovada sportsbook offering his prop total at 2 total runs, hits, and RBIs, our models think the over could be a valuable wager.
While Goldshmidt has struggled against right-handed pitching, he owns a .477 wOBA over 65 plate appearances this season against southpaws. With lefty Derek Holland on the hill for the San Francisco Giants, our models project Goldschmidt for a combined 2.4 runs, hits, and RBIs
Nick Markakis OVER 2 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-125)
With left-hander Clayton Richard on the bump for the San Diego Padres, Bovada has lowered Nick Markakis' prop total to 2 combined runs, hits, and RBIs. While Richard is holding lefties to a .254 wOBA this season, Markakis has hit southpaws very well in 2018.
Markakis owns a .399 wOBA and .188 isolated power over 93 plate appearances against left-handers this campaign. Our models think the Atlanta Braves' outfielder can keep that going tonight, projecting him for a combined 2.42 runs, hits, and RBIs despite the lefty-lefty matchup
Shohei Ohtani Will Not Record a Hit (+170)
Danny Duffy has been clobbered by right-handed batters this season, but he has been very good against lefty hitters. If Shohei Ohtani is serving as the Los Angeles Angels' designated hitter Monday, he could be an excellent fade candidate.
Duffy is holding left-handers to a .267 wOBA over 57 batters faced this season, and lefties have a .245 wOBA against him over his career. Although the sample size is small, Ohtani has struggled at the plate against MLB left-handers, posting a .222 wOBA and .036 isolated power. With +170 odds on Ohtani going hitless, our models are projecting him for 0.9 hits Monday.