3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/1/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Using the odds available at Bovada Sportsbook, here are three prop bets available tonight that are good plays based on our daily MLB game projections.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Charlie Blackmon WILL Hit a Home Run (+300)
Editor's Note: Since time of publication, the Los Angeles Dodgers announced that left-hander Scott Alexander -- not Dennis Santana -- will start Friday's game.
Unsurprisingly, today's Coors Field matchup has the day's highest over/under (11.5) by a full run. This means that we can expect plenty of offense on both sides, with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies boasting the day's two highest implied totals.
There are few players that have splits as impressive as Charlie Blackmon's when he's at home against a right-handed pitcher. Lucky him, that's where he is at tonight against righty Dennis Santana, who makes his Major League debut for Los Angeles. Since the start of the 2017 season, Blackmon has made 296 plate appearances against righties at home, turning a 44.3% hard-hit and 40.3% fly-ball rate into a .464 wOBA and .348 ISO in that sample.
At +300, Blackmon needs a 25% chance of hitting a dinger to offer break-even value here. While we can't make a straight comparison from our projection and his probability (thanks to the chances of a game with multiple home runs), we project him for 0.37, which is the second-highest mark on the slate, and more than high enough to be appealing at these odds.
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Aaron Judge OVER 2.5 Combined Runs, Hits and RBI (-140)
With last night's game rained out, the New York Yankees instead get their favorable matchup against Andrew Cashner tonight. Cashner's 4.84 SIERA to open 2018 puts him on pace for a third consecutive season posting a mark worse than 4.70, and this matchup means the Yanks' offense should have no trouble rolling tonight.
A struggling righty against Aaron Judge also makes for a particularly good spot to find production.The last two seasons have seen Judge crush right-handers for a .445 wOBA and .357 ISO on a 45.4% hard-hit rate -- ridiculous numbers over a significant 694 plate appearance sample.
Our models project Judge for the third-highest combined run, hit and RBI total on the slate (3.17), and even getting minus odds on over 2.5 today, he's a big value.
Aaron Hicks MORE Runs, Hits and RBI Than Adam Jones (-145)
The Yankees boast a huge 5.61 implied total compared to the Baltimore Orioles' 4.39 tonight, which right off the bat indicates that we can expect Hicks to get a lot more help than Jones in the runs and RBI sections of this bet.
This matchup with Cashner is also particularly appealing for Hicks, as Cashner has an egregious 5.58 xFIP against left-handed bats over the last two seasons. On the other side, Sonny Gray has a much more solid 4.11 xFIP against right-handed bats over the last two years.
The odds don't imply this to be a particularly close bet, and our models are in agreement. We project Hicks for 2.74 combined runs, hits and RBI, compared to 2.43 for Jones -- an edge of 12.8%.
