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MLB Betting Guide: Friday 6/1/18

Despite a matchup of aces, could the Astros and Red Sox plate more runs than the experts expect? Which other bets should you target tonight?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for Friday.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros

Over 7.0 (+109): 4-Star Rating out of 5

Behind another solid starting pitching performance, the Houston Astros beat the Boston Red Sox 4-2 on Thursday. Tonight's starters portend another pitching duel, but our models still think the two teams will find a way to hit the over tonight.

Chris Sale will get the nod for Boston. Last year's strikeout king is coming off his worst performance of the season. He gave up six runs and enticed only three ground balls in 4 1/3 innings of work against the Atlanta Braves. He's been able to keep most of Houston's lineup in check in previous matchups, though. The only exception has been -- feign surprise -- Jose Altuve. Altuve is 8-for-21 with a home run and a double in his career against Sale.

Sale will face off against Gerrit Cole, who is having a career year. Cole's 2.05 ERA and 0.83 WHIP would be career-bests if the season ended today, and his 2.3 WAR is already more than halfway to his 2015 career mark (4.5). He has not been as dominant over his past three starts as he was to start the season, however.

He's given up at least two runs (no more than three) in each of those starts, the longest such streak of the season. The Astros and their opponents have combined to score at least eight runs in all of those games. The current Red Sox roster is hitting a respectable .275 off of him in 40 at bats.

While these two pitching stars could certainly thrill viewers with stellar outings, our models still show 8.40 combined runs occurring one way or another tonight. We give the two teams a 56.77% chance of scoring enough to make betting the over a winning move, and at a 34% percent return.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

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