3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 5/31/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Gary Sanchez WILL record a hit (-250)
Our models absolutely adore Gary Sanchez tonight. Using FanDuel points as a quick proxy for overall production, we project him to be the second-most productive batter in action on Thursday, with only a tiny gap between him and Aaron Judge, who we have in first.
Sanchez hasn't been producing big numbers against righties this year, but he's making strong contact with a 38.7% hard-hit and 50.5% fly-ball rate. He's just been on the wrong side of variance. His BABIP against righties sits at a tiny .179 -- compared to his .296 career average and .309 BABIP in 2017.
He shouldn't have much trouble turning that production around against Andrew Cashner, who has an ugly 4.84 SIERA this year -- a clip that puts him on pace for his third year with a SIERA worse than 4.70.
Our models project Sanchez for 1.39 total hits, and while you're paying some steep odds on him here, projecting him to beat what you need by almost 40% still leaves him offering plenty of value.
Didi Gregorius MORE Runs, Hits and RBI than Adam Jones (-125)
Like Sanchez, Didi Gregorius shouldn't have much trouble against the struggling Cashner. Gregorius has tagged right-handed pitchers for a .350 wOBA and .281 ISO on a strong 43.1% hard-hit rate this season, despite his BABIP in the split sitting at only .241.
Gregorius is priced as only a slight favorite in this bet, but our models like him for the fifth-most combined runs, hits and RBIs of any player on the slate (2.93), while we have Jones ranked 33rd, projecting him for 2.41 -- a big enough difference to make up for the odds on Didi here.
Jose Ramirez OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits and RBI (+120)
Jose Ramirez is coming off the most productive season of his career, having notched a .396 wOBA and .265 ISO in 2017. This season has him on an even better pace, though, with a .428 wOBA and .329 ISO over 239 plate appearances. That production has come on a 33.9% hard-hit rate and 42.9% fly-ball rate.
The switch-hitter is doing his best work against righties (.451 wOBA and .368 ISO), putting him in a terrific spot to take advantage of his matchup against Jake Odorizzi, who has an ugly 5.27 xFIP against left-handed bats this season.
Our models project Ramirez for the day's most combined runs, hits and RBIs at a hefty 3.33. Even if Ramirez was priced as a significant favorite, it would be easy to like over 2.5 here, but getting it priced as an underdog makes one of the best bets on the slate.