3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 5/30/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Trea Turner OVER 2.0 Combined Runs, Hits and RBI (-130)
The Washington Nationals' implied total of 4.95 runs is second only to the Colorado Rockies (5.81) on tonight's slate. Therefore, it's hardly a surprise that our models are targeting their players for both betting and DFS purposes this evening.
One of the biggest discrepancies between our models and Bovada's combined hits, runs, and RBI line is with the Nats' Trea Turner. We have him pegged at 2.88, but Bovada has set the total for that prop at only 2.0, a massive difference.
Hess has been all over the place in three career starts, so it's tough to get a read on him. He is right-handed, however, which plays well into Turner's strengths. Turner is hitting .279 with five home runs against righties compared to just .237 and one homer against southpaws.
Given the matchup, Turner's recent hot hitting, and the sizable difference between our models and Vegas' odds, we recommend betting the over on the young shortstop.
Anthony Rendon MORE Combined Runs, Hits and RBI than Jonathan Schoop (-175)
Judging by their season stats, it's easy to see why Bovada is pairing Anthony Rendon and Jonathan Schoop in a hitting prop tonight. Schoop is averaging 2.00 combined hits, runs, and RBI per game, while Rendon is averaging 1.85.
Rendon and Schoop are hitting .262 and .236, respectively, on the season, but both players have upped that dramatically in the past week. Schoop is hitting .276 over the past week, while Rendon is besting him with a .320 mark and 1.090 OPS. The Nationals' third baseman is averaging 2.66 combined hits, runs, and RBI over that span, while Schoop -- despite the higher average -- is averaging just 1.85.
As mentioned above, the Nationals have the second-highest implied total of the slate with an estimated 4.95 runs against Baltimore. Not only do our models see Rendon being a big part of that, but his projected 3.29 combined hits, runs, and RBI are second only to Charlie Blackmon (3.35) tonight. Our models project Schoop to put up just 1.94 in these combined categories, indicating a difference of 1.35 between the two.
It seems bettors have started to make this realization as Rendon's a -175 favorite in this prop bet tonight. Even with a lower payout, however, we recommend betting on him over Schoop.
Asdrubal Cabrera OVER 2.0 Combined Runs, Hits and RBI (-125)
By many measures, Asdrubal Cabrera is having a career season. The New York Mets' shortstop is setting career marks in batting average (.315), OPS (.903), ISO, (.235), and is on pace to blow away his previous best Offensive WAR. Yet, he's still being undervalued.
The current Mets roster is hitting only .188 against Teheran for their careers. Cabrera, however, bucks the trend. He is batting .310 in 29 at bats against Teheran and is the only Met is hitting above .235 against tonight's opposing starter.
In his past 6 starts, Cabrera is 10-for-29 with 3 home runs, 5 runs, and 7 RBI, good for a combined output of 3.67 per game. Our models show him at 2.77 combined in tonight's contest, 0.77 above Bovada's line. As such, we recommend betting the over again here.