3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 5/29/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
J.D. Martinez OVER 2.5 Combined Runs, Hits and RBIs (-120)
The Boston Red Sox have a hefty 5.41 implied total against Toronto Blue Jays righty Marco Estrada, which comes as little surprise with Estrada's 5.05 SIERA in 2018 on pace to be a career-worst mark. With the offense so well-positioned, there's nobody that our models project to be more productive tonight than J.D. Martinez.
Martinez's .430 wOBA to open 2018 is right in line with his .430 clip from last year, and even with his ISO taking a bit of a dip, it still sits at an elite .330. He's tied for first among qualifying hitters in RBIs (44), ranks 18th in runs (34) and 12th in hits (63).
While he's priced as only a slight favorite to notch the over 2.5 in this category on Tuesday, our models like him to really take advantage of this matchup, projecting him with a slate-high 3.31 combined runs, hits and RBIs.
Anthony Rendon has MORE Combined Runs, Hits and RBIs than Jonathan Schoop (-125)
After Martinez, we project just four other players for at least 3.0 combined runs, hits and RBIs tonight. Our top projection outside of Martinez belongs to Anthony Rendon, at 3.15.
Rendon has an outstanding 39.6% hard-hit rate on the season, which he has converted to a .365 wOBA and .224 ISO. Baltimore's Dylan Bundy makes for a tough matchup, but nowhere near tough enough to make up for the gap between Rendon's production and Jonathan Schoop's .288 wOBA and .153 ISO. Schoop's 23.6% hard-hit rate also barely edges out his 22.7% soft-hit rate.
Our models project Schoop for a 2.15 tally in this category, a full 1.0 lower than Rendon's, and this bet is priced way closer than it should be.
J.T. Realmuto OVER 2.5 Combined Runs, Hits and RBIs (+110)
J.T. Realmuto isn't likely to get much help from the rest of the offense in the "runs and RBIs" department, as the Miami Marlins have the slate's second-lowest implied total (3.19), but this bet is simply priced too low when you consider his production.
Realmuto has opened 2018 with a .397 wOBA and .223 ISO through 143 plate appearances, and that's coming on a huge 40.6% hard-hit rate. San Diego's Tyson Ross has pitched well this season, but he's also allowing a big 39.5% hard-hit rate, leaving plenty of room for Realmuto to show off his power.
At +110, oddsmakers are implying only a 47.6% chance that Realmuto notches over 2.5 combined runs, hits and RBIs tonight. Our models are far more bullish on him, with his projected 3.09 clip sitting as the third-highest mark (behind only Rendon and Martinez) for the day.