3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 5/16/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Using the odds available at Bovada Sportsbook, here are three prop bets available for Opening Day that are good plays based on our daily MLB game projections.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins
J.T. Realmuto OVER 1.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-125)
J.T. Realmuto has ben scorching since making his season debut a month ago, and even with a tough matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Walker Buehler, our models think Realmuto can come through with a nice day at the plate.
The biggest reason for Realmuto's inclusion is his odds as laid out by Bovada. Realmuto has multiple pathways to collecting two total runs, hits, and RBI with just one swing of the bat. Even with our Matchup Heat Map giving the Miami Marlins an implied run total of just 3.17, our models project Realmuto for 2.5 combined runs, hits, and RBI.
Derek Dietrich WILL NOT Record A Hit (+135)
With the Marlins' tough matchup in mind, there could also be some value in fading Derek Dietrich tonight. The left-hander only owns a .266 wOBA over 120 plate appearances against right-handers this season, and that's just the start of his troubles.
Even though the sample size is small, Buehler has been nasty against hitters from both sides of the plate. Lefties own a .232 wOBA and 29.3% strikeout rate against Buehler this season. And it's for that reason that our models project Dietrich for less than 1 hit at 0.91, making his odds to go hitless pretty valuable at +135.
New York Yankees at Washington Nationals
Didi Gregorius OVER 2 Runs, Hits, and RBI (+100)
The New York Yankees and Washington Nationals have some business to attend to by finishing up a suspended game from Tuesday night. However, once they are done with that, our models think Didi Gregorius is a great prop value in the new game that starts directly afterward.
Bovada sportsbook has lowered Gregorius and the Yankees' odds against Max Scherzer, but Gregorius has hit righties very well this season. He owns a .378 wOBA and .324 isolated power over 126 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching, and our models think he is good for 2.24 runs, hits, and RBI despite the matchup with Scherzer.
