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2014 MLB Player Prop Bets: Finding Value Through Projections

Finding value in season-long player prop bets.

As baseball projection systems have become more accurate, so have the betting lines on season-long player performances. Until a decade ago, most player prop lines for the next season were seemingly based on the prior season only, with little adjustment for career performance or regression to the mean. I’m not sure what the over/under was on Brady Anderson’s home runs in 1997, the year after his 50 home run season, but I'm sure it was a lot higher than it would be in a similar situation in 2014.

Although the lines have continually gotten sharper, there's always value to be had for any bettors who are willing to tie up funds for a whole season. just posted hundreds of individual player props, and with the help of the numberFire season projections, I discovered several spots where there is enough deviation from the lines to find some positive expected value.

As with any bet, there's always risk. And although these lines all come from Bovada as of just a couple of days ago, you should obviously only bet where you feel comfortable. This is just a fun exercise to see where our numbers differ from what's going on out there.

Here are seven bets I found that our numbers seemed to strongly favor.

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