MLB
Why Did the Mariners Break the Bank for Cano?
The Mariners are in win-now mode and signing Robinson Cano was only the first step

In case you’ve been off the grid for the last week or two, allow me to fill you in: the Seattle Mariners appear to be going for it.

After a rocky negotiation process between the club’s General Manager Jack Zduriencik and new agent Jay-Z, the Mariners surprisingly decided to break the bank on a true superstar free agent, locking up this chart shows how those home runs look with Safeco’s dimensions:

It’s Cano’s consistency and ability to stay healthy and productive without relying on gaudy power or speed numbers that make me think he’ll follow in Big Papi’s footsteps as a stellar offensive producer well into his contract and career.

We can't overlook the fact that the Mariners locked up Cano's 6.84 short-term WAR (his average since 2009) and his estimated 36 WAR over the duration of the contract. Within the parameters of $/WAR, Seattle will get an early discount on Cano's prime years as the market value for one WAR is roughly $6 million (and rising). As Cano declines, Seattle will be left with a poor contract, but this doesn't mean that the contract itself is poor. On a pure $/WAR model, the Mariners are paying roughly $6.7 million per projected WAR ($5 million standard), which seems quite reasonable when accounting for future inflation. In other words, the positive value at the beginning of the contract balances the poor value at the end of the contract.

Why Now and What’s Next?

It’s certainly odd to see a team that has refused to spend money bust open the piggy bank for a 31-year-old player after a putrid 71-91 season that featured a lot of new and young faces, including the promising young middle infield combination of this Seattle Times article points out, “the Mariners front office is plagued by total dysfunction and a lack of leadership.”

Ouch.

Could it be that GM Jack Zduriencik is simply looking to save his job with a splashy move? If that is indeed the motive then he is fortunate that Cano is the type of impact player who could save him.

But let’s assume this isn’t some kind of desperate last gasp from Zduriencik. Let’s assume he and the rest of the front office have a real plan in a pretty deep free agent market.

Now that they’ve signed Cano, they must realize that this is a far different situation than looking long-term and patching things over with one year deals to players like Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez (who had an awesome first half in 2013). They have to realize that their window to contend is open right now, and they have to put all their chips in the middle to maximize their potential. They’ve already got a pair of great starting pitchers, a solid and improving third baseman in Kyle Seager, and an interesting young group of guys in Mike Zunino, Justin Smoak, Nick Franklin, Brad Miller, Dustin Ackley and Michael Saunders. And now they have Cano. On the other side, their bullpen is young and unsettled, but the team can shore that up with a few parts from the nice crop of relievers on the market.

In fact, the M’s have been rumored to be interested in Joaquin Benoit, though Grant Balfour and Jesse Crain are also solid free agent relievers should Benoit fall through. They have also been linked to Nelson Cruz and Corey Hart as they try to solidify their outfield and balance the lineup’s heavy southpaw tilt. On top of that, there’s steady buzz about a deal for David Price in exchange for Taijuan Walker and the now expendable Nick Franklin. If the Mariners do all of that, they can likely contend after a single offseason, which is extremely impressive. They’ll certainly have the money to throw around with their $2 billion television deal kicking in next year.

Of course, the team could also decide to do little-to-nothing more after signing Cano, in which case we could be looking at the newest version of the Alex Rodriguez-era Texas Rangers. After breaking the bank on the 25-year-old best player in baseball, the Rangers finished with 71, 72 and 73 wins in A-Rod’s three seasons with the team before he opted out and signed with the Yankees. That team featured some good hitters in a young Michael Young, Rafael Palmeiro and Ivan Rodriguez along with Mark Teixeira in the last year, but the rest of the lineup wasn’t able to support a bad rotation with an earned run average in the stratosphere.

What Does it All Mean?

Depending on which direction the team decides to take, we are looking at either a three-horse race in the AL West, or a disappointing could-have-been burning giant piles of money as its best players rot. I am hoping the Mariners reel in a big-name player or two and execute the Price trade (which they should, given the sudden expendability of Nick Franklin) over the next few weeks, quickly putting themselves in position for serious playoff contention. It won’t be easy given how good Oakland and Texas have been, but the worst thing the Mariners can do is not commit to trying to win as soon as possible—before Cano slips past his prime.

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