MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Sunday 6/11/17
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. We'll be focusing exclusively on the main slate, which begins at 1:05 p.m. EST and includes the day's first eight games.
Pitchers to Target
Chris Archer ($11,000 on FanDuel): We've got a pair of top-notch aces from which to choose, and Archer leads the way. The Tampa Bay Rays' righty is at home against the Oakland Athletics, a team which ranks fourth in strikeout rate (24.9%). Archer sits fourth in strikeout rate (30.0%), seventh in swinging-strike rate (13.2%) and ninth in SIERA (3.30), so the upside is there for a monster day. Oakland's 3.46 implied total is the lowest of the slate, and Archer is the afternoon's top arm, with our models projecting him for 36.7 FanDuel points (4.7 more than any other hurler).
Carlos Carrasco ($9,800): Carrasco is no slouch as he is 19th in strikeout rate (25.3%), 16th in swinging-strike rate (11.7%) and 20th in SIERA (3.65). He's taking on a Chicago White Sox squad which is 23rd in wOBA (.311), and they have a 25.5% strikeout rate over the past 14 days. His upside is the highest of any non-Archer pitcher today, and we project him for 32.0 FanDuel points, the second-most on the slate.
David Paulino ($6,600): Let's get weird. The two aforementioned pitchers are likely to see a good amount of ownership, and there are some other decent options -- Jake Arrieta, Ivan Nova and Adam Wainwright to name a few -- for those looking to be contrarian. All that adds up to Paulino being an appealing tourney play. A top prospect, Paulino has a mere 9 2/3 big-league frames under his belt, but he's dealt to the tune of a 27.9% strikeout rate and 4.7% walk rate in the small sample. These kind of numbers are nothing new for him as Paulino spent the majority of his 2016 campaign in Double-A, posting a 29.3% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate. There's a lot of risk here as the Houston Astros haven't let Paulino work more than 5 2/3 frames in a single outing, but his matchup against the Los Angeles Angels -- a team with a .309 wOBA over the last 14 days -- has some appeal, even though the Halos don't whiff much.
Hitters to Target
Carlos Correa ($4,200): Correa is a reverse-splits hitter taking on a righty who struggles with right-handed sticks -- it's perfect. Angels righty Jesse Chavez has given up a .352 wOBA, 38.7% hard-hit rate and 38.7% fly-ball rate this year to right-sided hitters. Correa, meanwhile, is sporting a .387 wOBA, 41.2% hard-hit rate and 36.6% fly-ball rate off right-handed pitchers. The Astros' 5.35 implied total paces the slate, and Correa can be the centerpiece of a Houston stack.
Kris Bryant ($4,100): The Chicago Cubs will likely be another popular stacking option as they're facing Antonio Senzatela with the wind howling out to left at Wrigley Field. Senzatela's rookie campaign looks good at first glance -- 8-2 record with a 3.56 ERA -- but he's sporting an ugly 6.5% swinging-strike rate, leading to an inflated 4.66 SIERA. Bryant owns a whopping 49.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handers in 2017, and he's racked up a .400 wOBA at home.
Mallex Smith ($2,000): Regardless of a player's ability, if he's priced at the minimum and hitting leadoff, we have to check him out. Smith has been atop the Rays' lineup the last two times they've faced a righty, and they're taking on Jesse Hahn this afternoon. Tampa Bay's 4.54 implied total makes Smith attractive enough, but he's fared decently well this year on his own -- putting up a .366 wOBA in 38 big-league plate appearances after amassing a .362 wOBA in 140 plate appearances at Triple-A. He's the top point-per-dollar value on the slate, per our models, assuming he hits first.
Chris Carter ($2,300): Admittedly, we're basically just hunting for a homer here since Carter has been hitting near the bottom of the New York Yankees' lineup, but he has a sweet matchup against Kevin Gausman. The Baltimore Orioles' righty, a popular breakout pick prior to the season, has been pretty terrible, laboring his way to a 5.12 SIERA and 9.0% walk rate while allowing a career-worst 33.9% hard-hit rate. Carter isn't a lock to be in the lineup, but if he is, there's a chance his 51.3% fly-ball rate allows him to run into one.
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