Staff Predictions for MLB's 2017 Individual Awards
With the MLB season officially underway, it's past time for all of us to make some fools of ourselves. Let's make some predictions that'll undoubtedly look ridiculous two months from now.
Over the past week, we've collected predictions from numberFire's MLB writing staff to see who they think will be taking home hardware at the end of the year. With picks for each league's MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year, there are plenty of chances for some healthy whiffs. What could go wrong?
So who are our favorites to snag each award? Let's go through the picks and check it out.
Matt Musico
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt
AL Cy Young: Chris Archer
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year: Andrew Benintendi
NL Rookie of the Year: Robert Gsellman
When it comes to the MVP conversation, it's Mike Trout's world, and we're all just living in it. If he makes good on his promise to steal 40 bags in addition to everything else he does, then there shouldn't even be a contest. Paul Goldschmidt doesn't get a lot of love based on where he plays and the other high-profile players in the NL, but he offers a unique power/speed combo at first base. With A.J. Pollock and David Peralta back in the mix, I expect 2015 production from Goldschmidt.
David Ortiz is nowhere to be found, but Andrew Benintendi is hitting second in what should be one of baseball's deepest lineups this year. After a solid showing in his first taste of big-league action last year, he's ready to take a step forward. Robert Gsellman was dominant in 44 2/3 regular season innings last year, posting a 2.63 FIP. He still maintains his rookie eligibility and has a good chance to rack up the stats in the backend of the New York Mets' stacked starting rotation.
Austan Kas
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year: Andrew Benintendi
NL Rookie of the Year: Dansby Swanson
In his age-23 season, Bryce Harper posted a .343 wOBA with 24 jacks and 21 steals while walking almost as much as he struck out. Oh, and it was a disappointing year. Harper and Kris Bryant may have a some fierce MVP battles over the next few seasons, and everyone wins in that scenario. As for the American League MVP and the National League Cy Young winner, I'm not going to overthink it.
In the American League, Yu Darvish came back from injury last season and was a monster, posting a 28.2% strikeout rate and 8.0% walk rate in 100 1/3 innings. If he does that over a full season, he'll be in the Cy Young mix. The influx of young talent coming into the game isn't going to slow down in 2017. Benintendi figures to be a key cog on one of baseball's best teams while Dansby Swanson should be a centerpiece in the Atlanta Braves' rebuilding process.
John Stolnis
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Nolan Arenado
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year: Jharel Cotton
NL Rookie of the Year: Dansby Swanson
Swanson should get a ton of playing time for Atlanta, and he's likely to have a very solid season at an important position, shortstop. In the AL, a lot of folks are picking Benintendi, but I'm not sure he's going to make as big an impact as some are saying. Instead, I'll go with the Oakland Athletics' young hurler, Jharel Cotton, who could put up a Michael Fulmer-like season in 2017.
Clayton Kershaw is head-and-shoulders better than anyone else in the National League, although Noah Syndergaard could give him a run for his money. In the AL, the lack of a true stud starting pitcher leaves this a bit muddled. I'm going with Justin Verlander because I believe his bounce-back season last year was for real and he's likely to be a sentimental choice after getting edged out by Rick Porcello in last year's Cy Young voting.
Brett Oswalt
AL MVP: Mookie Betts
NL MVP: Nolan Arenado
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year: Andrew Benintendi
NL Rookie of the Year: Hunter Renfroe
I'm all in on the Boston Red Sox this year. Vegas has them as favorites to win the American League and gives them the second-best odds (behind the Chicago Cubs) to win the World Series. So, after a breakout season a year ago, Mookie Betts will build upon his numbers and lead the Red Sox to a highly successful 2017 campaign. He and Benintendi will make up a “Killer B†duo atop Boston’s lineup, which will help Chris Sale win 20-plus games and get back to striking out more than 10 batters per nine.
In the National League, it’s a different story. The Cubs will take a step back and create opportunities for others. Nolan Arenado will again bomb 40-plus dingers, but this time with 125 RBI. He will benefit from an improved Colorado Rockies team and take MVP honors as their leader. With a return to health, Kershaw won’t make it two years without a Cy Young, well, because he’s Clayton Kershaw. And Hunter Renfroe will benefit from being on a bad team and getting the most playing time, finishing the year with more than 75 RBI.
Jack Carpenter
AL MVP: Jose Altuve
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young: Cole Hamels
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year: Yulieski Gurriel
NL Rookie of the Year: Dansby Swanson
It’s really hard not to pick Trout to win the AL MVP award, but I think this will be one of those years where team wins plays a bigger factor than they probably should. Jose Altuve, still only 26, has put together three straight seasons of 200 hits and developed a bit of a power stroke last year, to the tune of 24 home runs and the highest slugging percentage of his career (.531).
While some people may think these numbers are the best-case scenario, I disagree. Altuve is just entering the prime of his career and has the hitters surrounding him to catapult his batting numbers even higher in 2017. Look for Altuve to lead the Astros to the playoffs and follow up 2016 with an even better 2017.
Kenyatta Storin
AL MVP: Mookie Betts
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year: Andrew Benintendi
NL Rookie of the Year: Hunter Renfroe
You can't read too much into his strong spring, but I'm a big-time believer in Harper this season and think he returns to his 2015 levels. Similarly, I expect Darvish to return to his former glory to win his first Cy Young. Swanson is a popular pick for NL Rookie of the Year, but I'm not sure he'll hit well enough to win, so the nod goes to the more powerful Hunter Renfroe.
Chris Tredeau
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year: Andrew Benintendi
NL Rookie of the Year: Hunter Renfroe
Two "down" years in the stolen base department inspired Mike Trout to swipe 30 bags last year, but he hit only 29 homers. Trout joins the 30/30 club again en route to back-to-back MVPs.
Kershaw reminds everyone why he’s the most dominant pitcher on the planet, leading the NL in innings pitched and strikeouts while winning 20-plus games.
Ari Ross
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young: Chris Archer
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge
NL Rookie of the Year: Dansby Swanson
Harper struggled with injuries last season, but he's just one year removed from posting a 9.5 fWAR. He should bounce back and beat out Bryant for the NL MVP. Archer's in a similar boat after he posted a 2.90 FIP and 5.2 fWAR in 2015 before struggling in 2016 with a 3.81 FIP and 3.1 fWAR. I think he also bounces back, and there's always the potential he's traded to a contender.
Everyone's picking Benintendi to win the AL Rookie of the Year, but I actually like Aaron Judge to win it. If he gets his strikeout rate down to his minor league levels, he has the power to put up some absurd numbers. Swanson hit .302/.361/.442 in 145 plate appearances last season, and if he does it again, he's got the NL Rookie of the Year on lock.
Eric McClung
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Nolan Arenado
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year: Jharel Cotton
NL Rookie of the Year: Hunter Renfroe
Trout remains the best player in the game. No hot takes needed there. Verlander was the clear Cy Young winner last year and will be redeemed in 2017. Benintendi is all the rage for AL Rookie of the Year, but I believe he's more of a Christian Yelich-type than a true slugger/speedster combo player at this stage. Cotton posted a 2.15 ERA in five starts at the end of last season after he was traded to the A's. His stuff won't blow you away, but that changeup is very impressive.
If the Rockies can overcome their early-season injuries and compete for a Wild Card spot, the gaudy numbers Arenado puts up every year will finally be rewarded. The Cy Young award might be the Clayton Kershaw award in 25 years. Again, I'll fade the consensus Rookie of the Year pick here. Swanson looks like a fine player, but Renfroe can put up some gaudy power numbers and blow Swanson away in the home-run department. WAR-based voters will lean Swanson while more traditional voters will lean toward the big bopper.
Dennis DaSilva
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Nolan Arenado
AL Cy Young: Jose Quintana
NL Cy Young: Noah Syndergaard
AL Rookie of the Year: Andre Benintendi
NL Rookie of the Year: Josh Bell
Josh Bell barely kept his rookie status this year, but he, alongside fellow Pittsburgh Pirates teammate Tyler Glasnow, have a real chance to claim the award this year. Bell accumulated 128 at bats with lefty power, hitting .273/.368/.406 and showing potential for success as Pittsburgh's starting first baseman.
Mets fans expect their star-studded staff to produce well each and every start, and that rotation is centered around Syndergaard. The Texas native will use his 100 mile-per-hour arm to dominate National League hitters, posting a better record than measured by his previous season's work.
Tom Liscio
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge
NL Rookie of the Year: Dansby Swanson
This is the year for Goldschmidt. He is the best offensive first baseman there is and a pretty good defender. He walks a ton and clobbers the ball. I don't care if his team is in the cellar again; Goldschmidt puts up huge numbers that will catch the eye of voters.
Swanson is an easy pick for NL Rookie of the Year. He saw time in the majors last season and did some impressive work in that short period. I don't expect him to put up monster numbers, but the former Vanderbilt star is solid defensively, and if the Atlanta Braves even sniff the playoffs, many will point a finger to Swanson being the reason.
Jim Sannes
AL MVP: Carlos Correa
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year: Jharel Cotton
NL Rookie of the Year: Manuel Margot
While playing through injuries last year, Carlos Correa posted a .361 on-base percentage with 20 home runs and 13 stolen bases. That was his age-21 season. He's arguably the best hitter on one of baseball's best teams at a premium position, so we shouldn't be leaving Correa off our watch lists for the AL's top honor.
While Renfroe gets the hype due to his power, Manuel Margot seems to be the San Diego Padres hitter best-equipped to face big-league pitching. He struck out just 11.3% of the time in Triple-A last year on his way to swiping 30 bags in 124 games. Add in Margot's defense in center and heavy volume at the top of the order, and you start to see why his chances are better than they may seem.
