MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 10/1/16
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. This is for the main slate, which starts at 7:10 PM EST and features eight games.
Pitchers to Target
Hisashi Iwakuma ($8,000 on FanDuel): Let's get this out of the way -- it's a pretty "meh" buffet of pitching options on tonight's main slate. Iwakuma is near the top of the list for his home matchup with the Oakland Athletics. Iwakuma has been solid in the second half, holding hitters to a .313 wOBA with a 17.7% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate. He doesn't have a high ceiling, but his floor is pretty safe. Oakland ranks 26th in wOBA (.300) since the break, and Safeco checks in 26th in park factor.
Collin McHugh ($7,900): McHugh is our top-ranked hurler for the main slate as he gets a road matchup with the Los Angeles Angels. The Halos boast the lowest strikeout rate (16.4%) in baseball, so the upside isn't great here, either. However, over the last 30 days, the Angels sit 26th in wOBA (.300), and McHugh has jacked up his strikeout rate to 24.1% in the second half.
Jake Odorizzi ($7,700): Odorizzi is an intriguing option, although his road start against the Texas Rangers doesn't look very enticing. With their division title clinched, Texas may not roll out its best lineup, but that's something to check on before investing in Odorizzi. For his part, Odorizzi has been struggling of late, but he still owns a solid 21.0% strikeout rate for the season. If all of the Rangers' big bats are playing, it's probably best to stay away, but if Odorizzi gets to see a makeshift lineup, he could be an enticing tourney play.
Hitters to Target
Nolan Arenado ($4,300): Arenado will likely be the chalk play, but that's because he's in such a juicy spot. The Colorado Rockies' slugger has punked right-handed pitchers this year, posting a .398 wOBA with a 37.5% hard-hit rate and 46.4% fly-ball rate. Tonight, he gets to face Wily Peralta, who is giving up a .362 wOBA to righties in 2016. Putting this game in Coors is unfair, and the Rockies have an unfathomable 6.72 implied total. Our three highest projected hitters for the main slate -- Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Ryan Braun -- all come from this game.
J.D. Martinez ($3,600): All Martinez has done in 224 plate appearances in the second half is rack up a .411 wOBA with a 42.6% hard-hit rate. When he's faced a righty this year, he owns a .396 wOBA with a 38.6% hard-hit rate. Martinez and the Detroit Tigers should feast on right-handed rookie Aaron Blair, who has pitched to a 5.85 SIERA this season while giving up a 37.5% fly-ball rate.
Travis Jankowski ($2,200): The San Diego Padres have an implied total of 4.48 runs for their matchup with Archie Bradley at Chase Field, which ranks fifth in park factor. Bradley has gotten pummeled by left-handed hitters this year, allowing them to post a .398 wOBA with a 38.8% hard-hit rate. That's going to make Padres' mashers Ryan Schimpf ($3,400) and Alex Dickerson ($2,900) very popular tonight, but don't forget about Jankowski, the team's leadoff hitter. He doesn't pack a big punch, but Jankowski is sporting a .326 wOBA against righties, and he's swiped 16 bags in the second half.
Tim Anderson ($2,900): Against lefties, Anderson is putting up a .336 wOBA with a 38.5% hard-hit rate. Overall in the second half, he owns a .34.0% hard-hit rate, and he will likely be hitting leadoff for a Chicago White Sox' lineup with an implied total of 4.59 for their clash with southpaw Hector Santiago. The Minnesota Twins' starter has surrendered a 39.3% hard-hit rate and 53.7% fly-ball rate to right-handed sticks this season, and Santiago's strikeout rate is down to 15.2% in the second half.