MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 8/2/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
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The Top Three Pitchers
Doug Fister - The trade deadline didn't exactly change anything for the White Sox, good or bad; they're still that same team that ranks fourth-to-last in OBP and sixth-to-last in slugging percentage. The only difference from about a month ago is that their strikeout rate has now risen to right above the MLB average, which only serves to add even more ammo in Doug Fister's arsenal. Why yes, I will take the guy with 0.54 projected wins, 0.19 projected losses, and a second-lowest among all starters 1.19 projected WHIP tonight, thank you!
Tommy Milone - And as for the only guy who beats Fister in projected WHIP, we turn our attention out West even further to Oakland's Tommy Milone and his 1.15 figure. You know, the Rangers are halfway decent in OBP and slugging, but our projections never seem to like their chances of winning thanks to a poor all-around walk rate and very few players other than Beltre and Pierzynski who hit consistent line drives (21 percent team line drive rate is one percent off the league worst). Milone may allow four percent more balls in play than the MLB average, but when they can't hit as many line drives, it doesn't matter. Milone's 0.45 wins are the second-most tonight.
Tom Gorzelanny - Tonight's low-cost special, there isn't much of a Tom Gorzelanny bandwagon, but I'm absolutely down to create one. He has only started five games this season, but at least two of those were quality starts, and he does have 116 starts in his career. In 256 batters faced, he holds a 23.6 percent strikeout rate, 19 percent line drive rate, and an exceptional .247 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against. Add that to facing Washington's fourth-worst OBP and tenth-worst slugging, and we've got ourselves a nice little sleeper, don't we?
Top High-Priced Hitters
David Ortiz - Randall Delgado is supposed to be a halfway decent groundball-type pitcher... too bad the reality is that despite allowing 72 percent of balls in play, he makes less outs than average on those in-play balls (a .305 BABIP) with a 3.2 percent homerun rate allowed to boot. That means Ortiz won't just be dominant with his expected 0.27 projected HR tonight, but he also holds a .340 projected average that is the second-highest behind Buster Posey.
Buster Posey - Hey, in speaking of the devil himself! At the very least, he'll probably be the devil to Rays starter Chris Archer, who has somehow turned an only slightly-below average 21 percent line drive rate into a very, very below average .216 BABIP. Think about that for a second. For a BABIP that low, that means that almost every single ball in play that isn't a line drive needs to go for an out, with very little room for error. Needless to say, that's slightly unsustainable. Good think Posey's there with his own .328 BABIP to clean up, leading to his previously mentioned projections-leading .355 average tonight.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Carlos Gomez - Chris Archer, Washington edition: Jordan Zimmermann may be pitching solidly this year, but statistically, it's unlikely that his career-best .263 BABIP is going to continue considering his 23 percent line drive rate. And if it doesn't, watch out, because Zimmermann's low strikeout and walk rates means he allows 74 percent of opposing batters to hit a ball into play. For a guy adept at finding holes in the defense like Carlos Gomez, that's all you need to say. The Brewers outfielder's .366 BABIP should prove monumental tonight.
Logan Morrison - He may only be around because the Marlins are facing their seventh righty in seven days, but hey, if you want to give me a platoon guy facing his preferred pitcher while hitting in the fourth slot, I'm not going to argue. And if you're going to make that pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez, who has allowed a 3.1 percent homerun rate, 12.4 percent walk rate, and 23 percent line drive rate this season, I'm going to be positively ecstatic. The Marlins may not score many runs as a team, but given those stats, I'm not arguing with Morrison's projected .311 average and 0.78 RBI.