3 MLB FanDuel Studs to Target on 4/9/19
Jacob deGrom, P, New York Mets
We've yet to really have one of these spots this season -- there's a pitcher priced head-and-shoulders above all the others, and everything is there to justify the salary.
Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets are the slate's biggest favorites (-210 moneyline) by a big margin, and in a game with a puny 6.5-run over/under, the Minnesota Twins have an implied total of only 2.73 runs -- 0.79 fewer than anyone else on the slate.
DeGrom is coming off a career-year in 2018, having turned in a 2.78 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) while upping his strikeout rate to 32.2%, which came on a stellar 15.1% swinging-strike rate.
He's picked up right where he left off this year, with a massive 20.3% swinging-strike rate and 50.0% strikeout rate through two 2019 starts. Those numbers aren't sustainable, but they're a good indicator that he's at least still in his 2018 form.
The Twins' 12.4% swinging-strike rate is the ninth-highest in the Majors in the young 2019 campaign, suggesting -- because swinging-strike rate stabilized more quickly -- that their bottom-five strikeout rate (20.1%) is due to climb as well.
So, basically, with a combination of an elite floor and ceiling, if you can afford deGrom, you play him. And if you're on the fence and close to being able to afford him, you probably want to make the space to get him in there.