Fantasy Baseball: 5 Hitters Due for Negative Home Run Regression in 2019
Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
2018 - Home Runs: 36 (12th), FB: 23.5%, HR/FB: 35.0%
Christian Yelich seemed to certainly enjoy a lot of things about Milwaukee -- wheels of cheese, Schlitz beer, and jacking homers on his way to the NL MVP and a Central division title.
His home run prowess, though, stands out like a sore thumb. Among the top 80 home run hitters last year, Yelich's fly-ball rate was the lowest of anyone in that group, and his second-half homer surge was due to an extremely unlikely hitting profile:
| Month | HR | FB % | HR/FB% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 2 | 22.6% | 16.7% |
| May | 5 | 27.1% | 21.7% |
| Jun | 4 | 20.3% | 33.3% |
| Jul | 4 | 10.1% | 50.0% |
| Aug | 11 | 28.7% | 44.0% |
| Sep | 10 | 30.7% | 43.5% |
| TOTAL | 36 | 23.5% | 35.0% |
In the second half, nearly half of all of Yelich's fly-balls turned into home runs, and 25 of his 36 homers were hit from July on. Yelich is still a fantastic player, but our projection of 28 home runs for him in 2019 seems far more likely than a repeat performance of last year's 36.
