Fantasy Baseball: 5 Hitters Due for Negative Home Run Regression in 2019
Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
2018 - Home Runs: 36 (12th), FB: 23.5%, HR/FB: 35.0%
His home run prowess, though, stands out like a sore thumb. Among the top 80 home run hitters last year, Yelich's fly-ball rate was the lowest of anyone in that group, and his second-half homer surge was due to an extremely unlikely hitting profile:
In the second half, nearly half of all of Yelich's fly-balls turned into home runs, and 25 of his 36 homers were hit from July on. Yelich is still a fantastic player, but our projection of 28 home runs for him in 2019 seems far more likely than a repeat performance of last year's 36.